The Impact Of Exchange Rate Volatility On China's Export To Malaysia

China and Malaysia have a long history of economic and trade exchanges.Since 2008,Malaysia has replaced Singapore as China's largest trade partner in ASEAN countries,and has become the "leader" of China's trade cooperation with ASEAN.The exchange rate of RMB and Ringgit are going to market gradually,and the exchange rate presents the two-way characteristics of "rising or depreciating",and the volatility is increasing.Therefore,studying the magnitude of RMB-Ringgit exchange rate fluctuation has great influence on the export trade.But in the study of bilateral trade between China and Malaysia,the existing research literature focuses on the change of exchange rate,but it lacks the research on the impact of RMB-Ringgit's bilateral real exchange rate fluctuation on China's export trade.In this paper,China and Malaysia are selected as the research object,and from the perspective of China's export to Malaysia,the relationship between the bilateral exchange rate fluctuation of China and Malaysia and the specific export trade between China and Malaysia has been examined since July 2005.The influence of exchange rate fluctuation on trade scale and trade structure is mainly studied.Firstly,based on the monthly data of the RMB-Ringgit average exchange rate(direct pricing method)between China and Malaysia in June 2005-2017,we use GARCH(1,3)model to calculate the real exchange rate fluctuation of RMB-Ringgit.Secondly,the export volume of Malaysia,the export amount of HS classified commodities,China export,the export demand of China,the export demand of China and China's export,are selected by searching the literature in many ways.On the basis of the relative price of the product,the relative price of the classified commodities and the actual income of Malaysia,the exchange rate fluctuation is introduced directly,and two virtual variables are introduced into the two remittance changes of China during the sample period.First,the ARDL model corresponding to the long term export equation is established,and the optimal lag order is selected for the ECM model.Through the boundary cointegration test,it is known that there is a long-term cointegration relationship between the variables.Therefore,the least square method is used to estimate the long-term equilibrium coefficient of the exchange rate fluctuation to the export scale and export structure of Malaysia.Finally,the corresponding ARDL-ECM error correction model is constructed,and the error correction model is estimated,and the short-term elastic constants and error correction speed of each variable are obtained.This article holds that in the process of China's export trade to Malaysia,there is a cointegration relationship between China's export of Malaysia and Malaysia's actual receipts,the relative price of Chinese exports to Malaysia consumer goods,and the actual bilateral exchange rate fluctuations of the RMB-Ringgit.In the long run and short run,the relative price effect and income effect of export scale and trade structure coincide with the mainstream export trade theory.In the long term,the influence of exchange rate fluctuation on China's export scale and structure is not significant,which is in line with the neutral point of view of exchange rate fluctuation,such as Ehiter(1973),De Grauwe(1988)and so on.But in the short run,the fluctuation of exchange rate has great influence on the different categories of commodities in the Sino Malaysian export trade structure.Based on the empirical conclusion of the exchange rate fluctuation on the trade scale and trade structure of China's export Malaysia,the exporters and monetary authorities are proposed to improve our country's export policy to Malaysia.Firstly,the exporters should pay high attention to the economic recession risk and the change of the value of the RMB in Malaysia;secondly,the individual exporters should pay high attention to the change of exchange rate fluctuations;and the third,export The merchants should correctly understand the exchange rate fluctuation,avoid the risk and seize the opportunity;fourth,the monetary authorities should consider the time lag effect of the exchange rate fluctuation;and the fifth,the monetary authorities should try to break the exaggerated expectation of RMB appreciation.