Study Of The Influence Factors And Prediction Model On The Transmission And Transformation Projects' Investment

Nowadays,when socioeconomic is prosperity,the demand for electricity grows quickly.Under this background,our country increases investment in transmission and transformation projects.Thus,the scale of investment is larger and larger.Transmission and transformation projects' investment is a complex investment,which needs laege capital investment and long construction period.The existing theories of transmission and transformation projects are not comprehensive and systematic.Therefore,this paper will systematically study influence factors of transmission and transformation projects' investments,which will help forecast investment cost reasonably on condition of meeting the requirements of constructions and guarantee of construction quality and effectively control transmission and transformation projects' investment to increase investment returns.This paper mainly studies influence factors of transmission and transformation projects' investments and construction of investment forecast model.Taking 2008-2015 power transmission projects of the A power grid corp as sample data,I use quantitative and qualitative methods to recognize and demonstrate influence factors.I classify transmission and transformation projects to transmission projects and line projects.Then I use principal component analysis model,multi factor linear regression model and path analysis model to confirm the investments' influence factors and respectively sort the main factors affecting the investment of different voltage classes' substation engineering and line engineering.Then,this paper constructs a investment forecast model based on the BP neural network and uses the sample data of 220 kv substation engineering for example demonstration to ensure the accuracy of the investment forecast model,which means this model will be used to forecast investment and increase the rationality and reliability of projccts' cost estimation.The main innovation of this paper lies in the empirical research of influence factors projects' investments and construction of a investment forecast model based on the BP neural network.Through scientific analysis of various factors on the transmission projects' investment,it's helpful to provide basic range to construct and apply the model,which will help financial staff and others know the projects' cost and rationally plan projects' investments to reduce risk and increase investments' gains.