Research On The Effect Of Credit Mismatch On Excess Capacity Reflection

Excess capacity is one of the factors that seriously affect the steady development of China's economy.In recent years,excess production capacity suppresses the development of the economy,making corporate behavior distortions and serious waste of resources.And the most serious is that it is affecting the adjustment of industrial structure and industrial upgrading.China takes a series of measures to curb overcapacity,but the results did not meet expectations.In China's 2014-2016 three years of government reports,to resolve overcapacity has also been mentioned many times.Therefore,it is necessary to make an in-depth study on the causes of excess capacity,and provide reasonable suggestions to solve the problem of excess capacity.Based on the literature review found that impact on excess capacity factors of identity are not the same,although most scholars agree with overcapacity is caused by institutional aspects,but the study of overcapacity institutional reasons mainly from the perspective of the government is not appropriate and fiscal decentralization system do not pre defects,defects of the existing economic the system of in-depth study,therefore,lack of China's existing financial repression and overcapacity combined with literature.The existing literature on the problem of low efficiency of the allocation of financial resources is not in-depth study,due to the influence of excess capacity factors analysis is not thorough enough,when making policy recommendations have often neglected the allocation of financial resources and other factors.Based on the above research background,this paper studies the effect of credit mismatch on excess capacity on the basis of excessive investment behavior.Firstly,this paper analyzes the relationship between the mismatch of credit,the effect of credit mismatch on the over investment of enterprises,and the relationship between excessive investment and excess capacity.On the basis of the theoretical analysis,this paper uses empirical analysis to test the effect of credit mismatch on excess production capacity.In this paper,35 industrial sectors in China as the object of study,on the basis of excessive investment behavior of enterprises to study the effect of credit mismatch on excess capacity.First of all,the credit mismatch as an indirect factor of excess capacity,excessive investment as a direct impact factors of excess capacity,a joint study to build the empirical model.Secondly,the paper has measured the degree of excess capacity and the level of over investment.In this paper,the stochastic frontier analysis(SFA)is used to decompose the capacity utilization rate to the two sides of the production side and the consumption side,and the excess capacity of 35 industries in China is measured and compared.The study found that three of the industry's excess capacity is serious,that is,gas production and supply(S34),coal mining and washing(S1)and water production and supply industry(S35).For measuring the level of over investment,this paper based on the 2005-2015 China 709 industrial enterprises for the total sample,but because of the number of each industry is not equal to the number of enterprises,in order to remove the factors that lead to differences over investment situation.In this paper,the equivalent weight method,that is,each industry index directly to the average value of all stocks can be.It is found that the trend of over investment in the industry is consistent with the trend of excess production after the excessive investment level is calculated.Finally,the system GMM is used to estimate the parameters of the model,and the effects of the factors such as credit mismatch,over investment,foreign ownership,and the proportion of exports on the excess production are investigated.The excess capacity is found on the current overcapacity has positive influence,and excessive investment will have a positive impact on excess production capacity,increasing credit mismatch will promote the excessive investment of enterprises,and according to the degree of influence on investment and overcapacity.From the proportion of foreign investment and exports,the proportion of foreign capital will deepen the degree of deterioration of excess capacity,while the increase in the proportion of exports will reduce the degree of excess capacity.Therefore,if we want to completely solve the problem of excess production capacity,we need to start from the government and the financial system,and associated with excessive investment behavior.On the one hand,the government should actively resolve the overcapacity,the initiative to guide the coordination,reduce the intervention;on the other hand,to strengthen the banking system reform,reduce the corporate over reliance on credit resources,play the role of credit resources to improve the efficiency of business investment,reduce credit mismatch produced over left acceleration effect.In addition,to reduce excess industry barriers to exit,encourage enterprises in excess of the industry's voluntary exit,ease the pressure of excess production capacity.As a result,we can solve the problem of excess capacity in China,alleviate the serious waste of resources,and promote the rapid development of China's economy.