Research On Cross-Border Circulation Risk And Early Warning Mechanism Of China-Asean

In recent years,the domestic research on China-ASEAN RMB cross-border circulation is mainly aimed at studying the impact of RMB cross-border settlement and its influencing factors.In this paper,we mainly study the risk factors influencing the RMB cross-border circulation through SVAR model,And put forward the corresponding risk prevention mechanism.As the comprehensive reform area along the border financial reform mainly includes Guangxi and Yunnan provinces,and the two provinces adjacent to Vietnam,Myanmar,Laos and other ASEAN countries,so this article mainly to the border along the gold area as an example.In this paper,the SVAR model is used to find out the influencing factors of RMB cross-border circulation,and the mechanism of RMB cross-border circulation risk prevention is put forward,and the policy suggestions are put forward.The vector autoregressive structure model SVAR is often based on the economic theory,and its significance lies in its economic theory input and the corresponding model prediction.The SVAR model reduces the model's estimated parameters by adding structural constraints on the basis of the VAR model considering the current relations of the variables,so it is easier to be widely accepted in the analysis of the time series.The first two chapters of this paper analyze the status quo of RMB cross-border circulation along the border area,introduce the theoretical basis of the model establishment,the establishment of SVAR model in three or four chapters,analyze the influencing factors of RMB cross-border circulation,and establish early warning mechanism for these influencing factors,The fifth chapter we have come to a conclusion,and put forward policy recommendations.