Research On Fluctuation And Influencing Factors In The Chinese Soybean Prices Of Futures Market And Spot Market

In the year 1999,China lifted the quota restrictions on soy beans;and since the year 2006,China,which later became the biggest soy bean importer,had the import tariff on soy beans stabilizing 3%,which was a single stage.This essay studies the high dependence of China on import soy beans,and the vulnerability of domestic soy bean price due to the fluctuation of international soy bean price.The third part discusses the circumstance on soy bean production,consumption and trading,and analyzes the spot price,future price and their price trends of soy beans.It arrives at a conclusion:domestic soy beans sees a sluggish growth rate with a yearly output averaging less than 2,000 tons,and the growth rate is decreasing year by year.However,the main source country sees a rapid growth each year.Since the demand on soy beans increases constantly,from 2,000 tons in 1998 to 9,500 tons,which is 3.72 times,in 2015,with an average growth rate of 6.98%.The import of soy beans increases year by year,with a total number of 319 tons in the year 1998 to 8,169 tons,which is 24.6 times,in the year 2015,averaging 15.14%per year.The demand gap is in dire need to be narrowed by constant import,which results to the higher and higher dependence on import soy beans,and thus China loses the control of price in international market.The fourth part discusses the related concepts of marketing the farm products,conducts case studies on soy bean financing,and introduces the confronted risks.This chapter takes Group A as an example,analyzing how USD A uses the soy bean inventory and the expected yield data to influence CBOT listed prices,and thus causing the losses of soy bean import enterprises of China.Through case studies,it arrives at a conclusion:expanding the soy bean financing scale can result to the price increase.To begin with,the fifth part describes the factors that influence the future price of soy beans:basic factors,such as supply and demand,and natural disasters;currency factors,such as interest and exchange rates;cost of transportation;and other factors.Then,it conducts a case study on factors that influence the listed future prices of soy beans at CBOT and DCE,and the relations between spot price and future price of soy beans in China.See from the researches,the basic factor on supply and demand and the currency factors play indispensable roles on the soy bean price fluctuation at CBOT,while the natural disasters have a minor influence.The soy bean price of DCE and CBOT,BDI,and USDX enjoy a long-term co-integration.The increase of CBOT price,BDI and USDX all leads to the increase of price of soy bean futures,among which the currency enjoys the highest influence.Granger Causal Relation Test proves that the soy bean price of America,which controls soy bean price,has a one-way interactions with the soy bean price in China.The future price and spot price of Chinese soy beans are highly correlated with each other and enjoy a long-term co-integration,with a correlation coefficient of 0.87,which is pretty high.Granger Causal Relation Test detects the correlations between spot and future price of soy beans.Based on the results above,this essay puts forward several recommendations:strengthen credit supervision,tighten up the management of soybean spot market,draw lessons from foreign experiences to perfect futures market,and enhance the risk awareness of enterprises.