A Study On The Relevant Issues Of The Total Retail Sales Of Social Consumer Goods In China

In today's world,the development of the country can not be separated from economic development, expanding consumer demand is the most important factor in promoting economic development, and the total retail sales of social consumer goods is an important factor reflecting the consumption level of a country. In the national economic system,it is a very important indicator. Therefore,the analysis of the total retail sales of social consumer goods in the transition period of China's economic development has great significance.First of all, based on the time series data from 1995 to 2015, Eviews 8.0 is used as the tool,and the data of the logarithm are analyzed. Based on the cumulative contribution rate, the original variables are selected. The first principal component of the information is Flt,and then the principal component regression model is selected for the total principal component and total retail sales of social consumer goods. Finally, the principal component regression result is: Yt = 0.8308F1t + 1.2145AR(1) - 0.4614AR(2). And then use the time series data of nearly 10 years, using Matlab programming for gray correlation analysis, the following conclusions: China's total retail sales of social consumer goods and household disposable income, gross domestic product, the level of consumer spending has a great relationship, and the relationship between population quantity, price index and Engel coefficient is not great. Finally, the gray GM (1,5) model is established, and the influence of the main influencing factors on the total retail sales of social consumer goods is obtained.Then, based on the annual data of retail sales of social consumer goods from 1952 to 2016 and the monthly data from January 2001 to December 2016, the model was identified according to the autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation function graphs,and the Eviews 8.0 was established ARMA model, and finally determine the optimal ARMA model according to various tests. Finally, the ARIMA(1,1,0) model is established in the annual data forecast of the total retail sales of social consumer goods, and through the year of 2011 to 2016 The difference between the actual value and the predicted value indicates the ideal of the forecast result, and then the model is used to forecast the total retail sales of social consumer goods for the next four years from 2017 to 2020. In the monthly data forecast of the total retail sales of social consumer goods, this article finally established ARIMA(2,2,1)(0,1,1)12 model, the same model through the various test model for the optimal model, and use this model to forecast the total retail sales of social consumer goods in 2017, and then to analyze the forecast results.The research results of this paper have certain practical significance to the development of today's economy, which is conducive to the formulation of macroeconomic policies and the promotion of national development.