| Price stability is one of the goals of the government’s economic policy. In recent years, CPI has an excessive growth. This phenomenon caused concerns of the society. The government has taken a series of initiatives in order to stabilize prices, such as increasing investment in agriculture, reducing logistics costs, and the issuance of temporary price subsidies, raise interest rates, deposit reserve ratio. However, Economic policy has the lag. The policy effect can play a role in a period of time later, and the future economic situation may change, so measures of the central bank take have may become out of time to stabilizing price. Therefore, our country scientific prediction CPI, and on this basis the use of certain technical means, implement advanced monetary policy, for aims to ironing economic fluctuation macroeconomic policy has important significance. In the1990’s, New Zealand take the lead in using inflation targeting, the inflation rate as monetary policy target, and the good economic benefit is obtained. Since then, many developed countries have also implement inflation targeting, such as Britain, Canada, Sweden, Finland, Australia, Spain, Switzerland, Iceland, Norway and other countries, and success. Although our country’s temporary still does not have the condition of implementation of inflation targeting, still will money supply as the monetary policy goal, but it should be the future development direction of China’s monetary policy. The accurate prediction of CPI is the necessary conditions of implementing the inflation targeting regime. In order to realize this goal, our country should establish accurate inflation rate prediction model.Based on the study of China and foreign scholars on the inflation forecast, this paper take the combination forecasting model to forecast the CPI values in the second half of this year. First of all, this paper compare the prediction model of CPI used by domestic and foreign scholars, and analysis the advantages and disadvantages of them. A single model can only use part of the system information, and the different models have different prediction accuracy, so we cannot take a simple trade-off. While the combination forecasting model can forecast the system with the combination of the single model, therefore the prediction accuracy is improved.In order to establish combination forecast model, we need to establish ARIMA model and gray metabolic model. Firstly, this paper establishes ARIMA model with the data of CPI from January2000to December2011. In order to eliminate the influence of seasonal factors, this paper takes the data to seasonal adjustment, and then establish ARIMA (3,1,8) model. We take ARIMA (3,1,8) model to predict the data from January to July this year. Secondly, this construct the gray metabolic model on the basis of data in2011.after the model pass the text, we take the model to predict the data from January to July this year. After each single is built, we give each single forecast model for their weight according to the minimum principle of the error absolute value sum, and establish the combination forecast model.This paper applies the combination forecast model to forecast values of CPI in the future5month. The result shows that the value of CPI will be remained in a low level in the future5month. According to the empirical results of the model, this paper put forward the corresponding policy recommendations:in the short term, the government should adhere to the proactive fiscal policy and the prudent monetary policy, is inappropriate to adjust the monetary policy greatly; in the long term, the government should improve our country’s economy structure adjustment, and perfect China’s inflation forecast system. |
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