Establishment Of Financial Risk Based On Catastrophe Theory Model Evaluation Index System

In the past ten years,China's real estate enterprises change radically,repeatedly,by the macroeconomic impact,net profit decline and even carrying heavy losses,the shortage of the real estate industry,such as lack of credit risks and supervision is exposed,directly affect China's banking bad debts rate.The lack of credit in the real estate industry and the imperfect credit system have seriously affected the healthy development of the industry.The primary task of the real estate enterprise credit rating is to reveal the credit risk of the enterprise,to measure the default rate,the probability of default and LGD and public credit degree,giving the public a judgment,so our government should establish the real estate enterprises as soon as possible credit rating system,through the establishment of the real estate enterprises to improve the credit rating the market efficiency of resource allocation,increase support,reduce the cost of financing bank credit,improve the competitiveness of enterprises,to solve the information asymmetry between investors in financial market transactions in distress.This paper expounds the financial analysis and credit risk measurement model in the importance of credit rating.From the Angle of the development of credit rating,the traditional credit risk evaluation methods and the development of modern credit risk models are summarized,and reveals the disadvantages of traditional credit risk evaluation methods,the advantages of modern credit risk model is less subjective judgment factors.The final selection are summarized based on the advantages and disadvantages of each model is suitable for our country's credit risk measurement model we should departure from the actual situation in our country.In building a credit rating for the development of real estate investment financial index system from the perspective of corporate finance and bank loans early analysis,AHP method is used to build housing financial index system,from the project debt,profitability and operating,capital strength,four directions to measure real estate enterprise financial credit standing.Again according to the principle of catastrophe theory,by using hierarchical method in the theory of index selection principle,reduce the subjectivity.With 30 listed real estate companies on the basis of the financial data,through the mutation theory principle to measure the enterprise's risk profile.The system can use a credit evaluation index—credit to make quantitative evaluation of real estate enterprise credit level and the degree of risk.