China's Path Research Across Middle-income Traps

In 2010,China's per capita GNI was more than 4,000 US dollars for the first time,according to the World Bank's classification standards,China is already a middle-income countries.In recent years,China's economic development has developed a lot of new trends and challenges,with the reduction of total factor productivity,factor supply constraints strengthened,weakened the traditional comparative advantage,increased resources and environmental constraints,inequality in income distribution,global economic development and other reasons,China's economic growth began to slow down,there is the possibility of falling into the“Middle income trap”.Ensuring sustained and healthy economic development,avoiding falling into the “Middle income trap” are the problems that China needs to face and solve.There are a variety of options for our country to across the "Middle-income trap" :transforming the economic development mode;promoting the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure;fair income distribution etc.The most important thing is the driving force of technological innovation,because the transformation of economic development,promoting the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure,the formation of new comparative advantages,and to find a new source of economic growth,are all in need of technological innovation to support.Japan,South Korea,Singapore can successfully cross the” Middle-income trap”,while Brazil,Mexico and other Latin American countries are deeply involved,a very important renson is that the different countries attach different great importance on technological innovation.On the basis of normative analysis,this paper constructs the VAR model,examines the dynamic relationship between technological innovation and economic growth through impulse response analysis and variance decomposition,and constructs binary logit model using international data to test the technological innovation "Middle income trap" the possibility of the role.The empirical results show thattechnological innovation has a significant positive effect on a country moving up the "middle income trap",and the improvement of technological innovation can increase the possibility of a crossing the "middle-income trap".However,in comparison,Chin's current level of technological innovation is low,the impact to economic growth is limited,the main factors are: the local government's incentive development policy hinder technological innovation;financial support appears favoritism,the support for small and medium enterprises is not enough;weak funding innovation system;intellectual property protection is not in place,the patent system is not perfect and so on.In this case,in order to help our country to succeed in crossing the "Middle income trap",we put forward the following countermeasures and suggestions from the aspects of technological innovation: first,the government should play a positive role in guiding,create a good external environment and incentive mechanism to encourage technological innovation;second,strengthen the dominant position of enterprises,improve the independent innovation capability and international competitiveness;third,continue to increase R & D investment,pay attention to basic research;fourth,strengthen the construction of human capital,provide sufficient intellectual support and talent protection for technological innovation;fifth,deepen the reform of science and technology,collaborative innovation,promote the combination of technology and economy more closely.