A Study On The Spillover Effect Of Us Dollar Cycle On Brazil Economy

Brazil is the largest economy in Latin America,and the United States is the most influential developed country in the world.Brazil and the United States are geographically close,and the economic relations between the two countries are also experiencing a complicated and complicated connection.The subtle changes in the dollar cycle are involved in the economy and development of Brazil as a whole.Therefore,it is of great significance to study the dollar cycle.Based on the international transmission theory of monetary policy,this paper deduces the influence of the cyclical change of the dollar from five intermediate variables on the economy of Brazil.After that,the paper investigated the influence of the dollar cycle on Brazil economy,and analyzed the spillover effects of the US dollar cycle on Brazil's economy by using the VAR model.The empirical analysis shows that the impact of the dollar cycle on Brazil's economy is obvious,and there is a periodic change between the dollar cycle and the output of Brazil.In view of the impact of the dollar cycle on Brazil's economy,the author puts forward countermeasures and suggestions for Brazil to deal with the dollar cycle.