A Study Of The Impact Of Public Expectation On The Transmission Effect Of Monetary Policy In The New Normal Of Economy

Since 2012,China's economy has entered a new normal,with structural conflicts between supply and demand,slowing down of growth rate,deepening of reform process,and emerging international trade disputes.China's economy has been steadily improving under the complicated economic environment,and China's macro economy is faced with numerous challenges.As a right-hand man of macro-economic control and regulation,Fiscal policy and monetary policy is the important engine of economic growth,but under the background of the complication of the international economic environment constantly,the central bank began to constantly explore new type of monetary policy tools,targeted to adjust structural shortage problem,pay attention to management of the public expectations and guidance,contribute to the public's expectations of future economic,be sure to steady economic growth.Nevertheless,compared with western developed countries,our country's emphasis on expected management level and management level still have a big gap,in such a background,the research of the relationship between public expectations and monetary policy effectiveness is helpful for the central bank to manage and guide the public expectations more effectively,to unblock the transmission channels of monetary policy,to promote the effectiveness of monetary policy,and to find new ways and new directions for macroeconomic regulation and control.Based on the research background and significance discussed above,through the study and analysis of the relevant literature at home and abroad,this paper first collates and analyzes the relevant theories of the public expectation and monetary policy transmission mechanism,and systematically explores the public expectation and monetary policy transmission mechanism as well as the theoretical analysis between them.Then this paper selects January 2012 to May 2019 since the economy entered the new normal as the sample research interval,and the relevant proxyvariables are selected for quantitative monetary policy operation tools,price monetary policy operation tools,public expectations,monetary policy transmission effect and other research objects.After the relevant data processing,the VAR model is established.At the same time,the impulse response analysis and variance decomposition analysis are conducted for the established model At the same time,this paper also makes a comparative analysis of the regulatory effect of the quantitative monetary policy operation tools and the price monetary policy operation tools under the uncertainty conditions,and observes the different effectiveness of the two monetary policies.Finally,according to the results of theoretical and empirical analysis of the whole article,the paper puts forward feasible policy suggestions and opinions.Through theoretical analysis and empirical test,this paper explores and studies the influence relationship between public expectations and the effectiveness of monetary policy,and compares the influence degree and effect of price-based monetary policy operating tools and quantitative-based monetary policy operating tools on the ultimate goal of monetary policy after adding public expectations variable.In reference to the literature at home and abroad,and considering the availability of data,this article selects the consumer confidence index representing the public expectations,and selects the domestic inter-bank lending rates interest as a monetary policy tool price mode,and selects social financing scale increments as proxy variable of quantitative monetary policy tool,and selects complete amount of investment in fixed assets as proxy variable of output level,after through stationarity test and cointegration test,the results of established VAR model type shows:(1)The effectiveness of monetary policy of price type is better than that of quantity type;(2)Public expectation can unblock the transmission channel of monetary policy and promote the increase of output and economic growth.From the empirical test results,the central bank should strengthen the information communication with the public,and pay attention to management of the public expectations and guidance,andenhance financial knowledge in the basic education,and try to make the public form economic expectations consistent with monetary policy goals,at the same time pay attention to the collocation of various monetary policy tools to use,better smooth monetary policy transmission channels,promote overall output level,Under the general requirements of stable employment,stable finance,stable foreign trade,stable foreign investment,stable investment and stable expectations,we will better and more efficiently achieve the goal of stable economic growth.