An Empirical Study On The Default Risk Of Consumer Credit Guarantee Insurance

Since the 1990s,personal consumer loan business has been launched as credit card consumption,personal car loans,consumer durables loans,student loans and housing mortgage loans.With the increase of residents'income level and the change of consumption concept,the scale of consumer credit in our country is gradually rising.In August 2014,the State Council issued the Opinions on Accelerating the Development of Modern Insurance Services,which explicitly stated:"Actively develop consumer credit guarantee insurance and release residents' spending power".Under the impetus of the economic situation and national advocacy,the major insurance companies have to use their own advantages into the field of consumer credit,consumer credit guarantee insurance business has become a hot spot.The principle of consumer credit guarantee insurance is to embed the insurance services in the process of consumption or loans,with the method of providing assurance to the borrower,so that the capital security of investors has been protected.The application of consumer credit guarantee insurance,shifting the credit risk of markets to insurance company,that means,insurance company to undertake the risk of repayment of the borrower.However,based on the current domestic credit system and related laws and regulations are imperfect,the risk exposure of consumer credit guarantee insurance is very prominent.In particular,the policy-holder does not fulfill the repayment obligations and the insured moral hazard increased,making the consumer credit guarantee insurance's default risk is extremely serious.Therefore,for the insurance company,it is necessary to obtain the maximum degree of customer information,the use of existing data to identify the insured person to breach the risk factors,and then to achieve effective risk management to the consumer credit guarantee insurance.First of all,This paper introduced the basic concepts and features of consumer credit guarantee insurance,and then combined with it's status quo and discusses the problems encountered in the development process,then the consumer credit guarantee insurance's default risk formation mechanism is analyzed,summed up the formation of default risk factors.At last,the empirical analysis was carried out on the sample data,using T test method,random forest algorithm and stepwise discriminant analysis to select the variables and establish a default prediction model.At the end of paper,analyzing the consumer credit guarantee insurance' problems of risk management from the two aspects of theory and empirical analysis,and finally make some suggestion from the perspective of insurance companies to develop the credit guarantee insurance.