Simulation Analysis On Economic Effect Of China-Japan-Korea Free Trade Area And Policy Suggestions

In recent years,the wave of regional economic integration has become more and more violent,and the regional economic cooperation organizations have sprung up.Especially in North America and Europe.East Asia is an important place in the world economy.If not follow the trend to strengthen regional economic cooperation,it will be detrimental to the economic development of East Asian countries and regions.China,Japan and South Korea as one of the important economies in East Asia,geographical location,history and culture have more similarities.If the three countries can actively carry out economic cooperation and accelerate the cooperation talks in the FTA,the establishment of the China-Japan-South Korea Free Trade Area will not only greatly enhance the economic development of the three countries,but also accelerate the whole of Asia Regional economic integration development,and then enhance the East Asian economic development in the world of the right to speak,to consolidate the world status of East Asia.In view of this opportunity,this paper is based on the free trade theory,first of all from the economic scale of China-Japan-Korea,trade complementarity,import and export commodity structure diversification and other angles,detailed discuss the established economic base of China,Japan and South Korea FTA.Second,this paper uses the latest version of the global trade analysis model – GTAP9 and empirical simulate that when China-Japan-Korea free trade area is completed,the tariff reduction to 0,trade technical barriers gradually decreased,the changes of China,Japan and South Korea's gross domestic product,trade conditions,and the level of industry output.And then concluded that the establishment of China-Japan-Korea free trade area for China,Japan and South Korea will improve three countries' gross domestic product,improve the terms of trade and enhance the overall welfare of the three peoples.For the three countries,it is a mutually beneficial and win-win thing.Finally,according to the world economic realities and China's domestic development,this paper detailed analysis the opportunities and a series of challenges that the establishment of China-Japan-Korea free trade zone will to face,and then promote that three countries should join together to face the serious obstacles in the process of free trade Regional negotiations,embrace the positive and serious attitude,and strive to promote the construction of ChinaJapan-Korea free trade area.It is useful to seek greater economicdevelopment for the East Asian and even the world's economic development and contribute to the common strength.