| China, Japan and South Korea are three important economies in east Asia, and each of them has its own respective characteristic as they are in the different development stage, China as a typical developing country, Japan is a typical developed country, South Korea emerging industrial country. There are economic complementary characteristics among the three countries, besides, they are geographic close at the same time, abide by the Confucian culture, cultural homogeneity, all of this founded a firm basis of cooperation and communication.The outbreak of the Asian financial crisis in1998and the global economic crisis in2008has made the east Asian countries pay more attention to the importance of regional cooperation and in year2001the Association of Southeast Asian took the lead in reaching an agreement regarding about establishing a free trade area with China in the next ten years, as time went by the CAFTA was formally completed in year2010and the two of them acquired a series of achievements. According to this, The two countries, Japan and South Korea, lest being marginalized, they accelerate the process of promoting regional integration consider from its own economic and political point of view. Therefore, the China, Japan and South Korea Free Trade Area was proposed in year1999,since then the topic is on the agenda and being more focused.Agricultural trade has always been an important and sensitive area for all countries in the world and highly protected for its foundational status, Japan and South Korea has been known as the most rigorous in the protection attitude of agricultural products which cause the agricultural trade among the three countries a lot of obstacles. In this paper by computing three indexes, refers to relative trade advantage (RTA), overall bilateral complementary (OBC), trade intensity index (TⅡ),we can get a conclusion that the agricultural products in three countries has strong complementary characteristic, and the strongest are between China and Japan, then the China and South Korea, last comes the Japan and South Korea, namely, mutually open markets for agricultural products can promote agricultural trade among the three countries. But considering the high protection for agricultural products inside Japan and South Korea, we may anticipate that the open in agriculture area will be the most difficult problem in the process of building the Free Trade Area. As the agricultural population accounts for the vast proportion of developing countries, we must be fully aware of the impact on China’s agriculture when we take part in the FTA negotiations. By using the GTAP (Global Trade Analysis Project) model, this paper is focused on studying the impacts on the trade of agricultural products in our country after the Free Trade Area established, so we specially divided the database in the model into nine categories and the industry11categories to simulation and analysis. Simulation results show that the establishment of the Free Trade Area can promote the agricultural trade among the three countries, but at the same time the disadvantaged agricultural products in each country may be affected by a certain impact.Subsequent to the establishment of China, Japan and South Korea free trade area, part of China’s agricultural products may get a shock, but the degree is small, the appropriate import can better meet people’s demand for agricultural products, as to the important and sensitive agricultural products. We can give moderate support to their development. Besides this, the trade of most agricultural products in our country can be promoted. At the same time, agricultural products in Japan and South Korea may get larger shock, there seems larger domestic resistance inside Japan and South Korea to open markets for agricultural products. From this point we can looser the standard of market opening in some areas to promote the negotiation process. |
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