Research On The Guarantee Level Of Enterprise Annuity To Consumption Expenditure Under Random Interest Rate

In the era of longevity,the life expectancy of the population is increasing,the global ageing problem is becoming more prominent and the three-pillar protection system is attracting attention.This paper examines the contribution of enterprise annuities under stochastic interest rates in the context of global ageing and in the context of China’s actual situation,as follows.Firstly,the relevant concepts and theoretical foundations are sorted out,clarifying the concepts and theories related to enterprise annuities and providing a theoretical basis for the analysis of the level of enterprise annuity protection and the construction of actuarial models later on.The actual operation of China’s enterprise annuity schemes at this stage is explained and the factors affecting the level of enterprise annuity protection are analysed,with practical research implications.Secondly,an actuarial model of the accumulation amount of individual accounts of enterprise annuities under stochastic interest rates and a model of consumption expenditure were developed.The specific modelling process is as follows:assuming that the interest rate obeys the term structure model of Vasicek interest rate,applying the correlation principle and the principle of turnover,the interbank seven-day repo rate suitable for the empirical evidence is selected,and the parameters of Vasicek model are estimated by applying the generalised moments estimation method to this interest rate,using Eviews8 software,and then the contribution rate model is constructed;this section uses the construction of Extended Linear Expenditure System model(ELES)to forecast the consumption structure and construct a model to forecast the basic living standard of urban residents.Thirdly,based on the data of per capita net income,basic living consumption expenditure and eight major consumption items such as food,medical care and housing of urban residents from 1992 to 2021,the model constructed in the previous section was used to forecast the level of basic living consumption;and a Monte Carlo method was used to conduct an arithmetic analysis to calculate the expected value of the accumulated amount of enterprise annuity in the individual accounts of insured workers of different ages when they receive the enterprise annuity.Finally,based on the definition of the contribution rate of enterprise annuities,the contribution rate levels of participants of different ages are measured,and the conclusion that the contribution rate of enterprise annuities under the stochastic interest rate is proportional to the period of participation,and that enterprise annuities cannot protect the basic consumption expenditure of retired workers is drawn,and corresponding recommendations are made.