Research On The Transmission Mechanism Of Macro Prudential Policy And Its Empirical:2008-2015

The subprime mortgage crisis triggered by the global financial crisis to make people aware of the shortcomings of the traditional micro Prudential exists, namely the individual financial institution is not sufficient to show that the robust stability of the financial system of the whole,which is likely to accumulate a huge risk,and this accumulation is likely to bring great harm to the financial system and macro economy. Based on this, macro Prudential policy has been put forward and put into practice, and other macroeconomic policies, determine the state of the economy. But the macro Prudential policy includes two aspects of policy tools and the ultimate goal of the content, the conduction mechanism of the effect of the final objective is the policy tool of macro Prudential policy, but also the core content of macro Prudential policy, this paper launches the research on the transmission mechanism, in the hope of learning foreign experience and lessons at the same time,to improve China's macro Prudential policy the effect of the mechanism, to provide a meaningful exploration for China's financial sector stability and steady economic development.In this paper, based on combing the related literature at home and abroad research on macro prudential policies and objectives, tools, the transmission mechanism is discussed,although the macro Prudential policy in theory and practice has made a breakthrough, but also for the study of macro Prudential policy transmission mechanism mainly concentrated on the theoretical level, the lack of systematic quantitative research. The transmission mechanism is a policy tool in the ultimate goal through a series of variables,so the policy tool categories are introduced, and creatively put forward the conduction mechanism from the perspective of policy tool for re classification, then each kind of tools to choose a representative tool to study. But due to the financial stability of the policy is difficult to quantify, to make the empirical analysis part is difficult to start, so this paper chooses the real estate industry as the research object, because it is the only industry may lead to systemic risk current problems, represent the Chinese financial economy is safe and sound. Finally, 2008-2015 monthly data as the sample for the study based on this paper by the method of VAR model and multiple linear regression on the asset class and the capital of the two kinds of macro Prudential policy tools for empirical analysis,the research found that the loan to value ratio does help reduce systemic risk of the real estate industry, so as to achieve indirect maintenance the financial stability in the macro Prudential policy goals, but in its time lag, so we must make timely adjustments; countercyclical capital requirements for the effect to enhance the overall banking sector capital adequacy level is significant, reflecting the policy goals of good results.Finally, this paper puts forward the corresponding policy recommendations, and analyzes the inadequacies of this article,as well as the future macro Prudential policy transmission mechanism for the future.