Analysis And Trend Prediction Of Food Security In Sichuan Province Based On Cultivated Land Pressure Index Model

Food is a necessity of human existence, food security is a major event in the national economy and people's livelihood, food security and cultivated land is the basic With the development of national economic development and the advancement of urbanization, more and more land is occupied by a lot of, a shrinking arable land decrease, and population growth, the increasingly prominent contradiction between human and land, food security is facing severe test How to guarantee the economic development and at the same time protect the cultivated land to the survival of humans, this is the government need to urgently solve the problem To protect arable land, Guarantee food security, and should take the construction and economic development, which requires the arable land on the allocation and use of master a degree.Taking sichuan province as the research object, the reference to the research achievements of many scholars at home and abroad, in sichuan province from 2000 to 2015 of the dynamic change of cultivated land, population and grain were analyzed, and based on the cultivated land pressure index model of sichuan province from 2000 to 2015 the cultivated land pressure index calculation and analysis, found in sichuan province from 2000 to 2015 the cultivated land area is presented to reduce the slow growth soared after trend,while the population presents a slight downward trend after rising first, cause the per capita cultivated land area changes along with the change of cultivated land area and population,present a smooth decline after the first explosion condition again, cultivated land pressure index K value as a whole is divided into wave rising and declining first and then a slight fluctuations in two stages, through to the sichuan province around the city in 2002, 2006, the cultivated land pressure index analysis,the proportion of the cultivated land pressure index is influential in suining, sichuan province, from ziyang and neijiang three places; Using comparative static analysis to the comparative analysis in 2005, 2010, 2010 in sichuan province in the national provincial pressure index of cultivated land pressure index position,found in sichuan province cultivated land pressure index in the national provincial rank in the middle area, the fluctuation is not big, is greater than the cultivated land pressure index in sichuan province has 18, 2005, 14, 2010, 13, 2015, the province integrity of cultivated land pressure index changed little. The GM (1.1) model is adopted to predict the next 10 years in sichuan province cultivated land pressure index and analysis, that in the next 10 years the trend of cultivated land pressure index of sichuan province in a steady, but cultivated land still bearing the great pressure. In view of the main problems of cultivated land, and puts forward strict arable land protection system, strengthen supervision, reasonable use of existing farmland and so on six specific measures to alleviate the pressure of the cultivated land in sichuan province.