Evaluation Of Food Security In Hunan Province Based On Pressure Index On Cropland

As the Hunan Province in China, an important agricultural province, grain production bases and varieties of rice advantages layout area, the Province food production on the protection of national food security is of great significance. Therefore, it is necessary to evaluate the situation of pressure on cultivated land in Hunan Province, analyze the situation of food production, and to make specific safeguards. This has important practical significance to Hunan Province and the country.Peking University Professor Cai Yunlong proposed minimum per capita cultivated land was referenced herein, through analysis of the dynamic changes of relevant factors affecting cultivated land pressure index in Hunan1997-2010, to evaluate the pressure on cultivated land in Hunan Province, and then analyzes the food security situation in Hunan Province. And application of gray GM (1,1) system model, a regression model, the regression models to predict related factors affecting cultivated land pressure index, to measure the coming pressure on cultivated land in Hunan Province, to determine the food security situation of the future, proposed corresponding countermeasures and suggestions. Research results are as follows.With the rapid economic development of Hunan Province, the rapid progress of urbanization, construction land increased year by year, in addition to the adjustment of agricultural structure in Hunan Province’s population is growing, so that the actual minimum per capita cultivated land (Sn) of Hunan Province presented after the cut before increasing the overall decreasing trend. The future with the further economy development of Hunan Province, to further promote urbanization, population continues to grow, continue to reduce the cultivated land, real per capita cultivated land in Hunan Province will show a decreasing trend. The minimum per capita arable land area (Smin) in Hunan Province1997-2010showing an overall trend in increase or decrease after the first of the arable land pressure index (K) changes in general also increased and decreased, showed a wave-like characteristics,2002and2003farmland pressure index K>1, reached the warning level, indicating that food production in these two years in Hunan Province’s population can’t meet basic consumption, food security is threatened. The index decreased gradually cultivated land pressure of other years, remained at the level of less than1. From a holistic point of view, the current state of food security in Hunan better.The pressure index K values in Hunan Province are less than1, before the advent of cultivated land warning value in the consumption level of well off-type(450kg/person/year). This shows the grain production in Hunan Province are able to meet residents’ consumption, higher than the level of demand for food supply, in the level of consumption in the future years of2020and2025. Food is safe, there is no food crisis. But in the well-type(550kg/person/year), the pressure index K values in Hunan Province are greater than1, in this moment, the grain production was lower than consumer demand, food supply is lower than demand levels, the presence of food insecurity. Considering the2025Hunan Province temporarily unable to achieve the level of affluence and consumption, so overall, coming in2020and2025, the food security situation is better in Hunan Province. But there are should also to increase the arable land protection, use of land rationally, to stop cultivated land unreasonable phenomenon, to ensure the food security.