Research On Coupled Relationships Among Supply,demand And Price Of Oil

With the deepening of economic globalization and the increasing demand for international oil,the contradiction between supply and demand of oil market is becoming more and more prominent,which leads to drastic fluctuations in oil price.The international oil market was in a state of short supply from January 2007 to June2008,resulting in rapid growth in international oil price.The magnitude of growth was 146.5%.The international oil market was in a state of oversupply from June 2014 to January 2016,resulting in international oil price plummeted.The rate of decline was 264.2%.In addition,fluctuations of oil price can effectively regulate the supply and demand in the oil market,which has a profound impact on the supply and demand.Thus,it affects other aspects such as the national energy strategy,economic,political and so on.Therefore,it is very important to study the coupled relationships between supply and demand of oil market,which is helpful for us to analyze the interaction among oil supply,demand and price deeply.This paper gives a comprehensive analysis of the international oil market supply,demand and price evolution based on the actual situation of oil supply,demand and price.It reveals the complex relationships among three factors from the qualitative perspective,then draws the causal graph among the factors of international oil market.Secondly,we build a three-dimensional nonlinear dynamic system among oil supply,demand and price and explore the dynamic characteristics of the system.It is found that the system shows stable state,periodic change state and chaotic state under different parameters or initial values by numerical simulation.It also shows that the system is sensitive to parameters and initial values.Thirdly,we give a stage division according to the evolution of the frequency of crude oil price fluctuation and identify the parameters in different stages.On this basis,we give the evolution results of each stage of supply-demand-price system,which reveals the characteristics of parameters in each stage.The corresponding parameters are compared and analyzed.Then we explore the various who plays a key role in the change of the supply,demand and price and its influence in each stage.Finally,we simulate the evolution of oil supply,demand and price through differential equation and find that there is a high degree ofcoincidence between simulation result and actual data.The high coincidence shows that the system can effectively reflect the complex relationships among supply,demand and price in the international oil market.