Simulation Of Land Use Change In Typical Karst Area

Land Use Change is influenced by natural,economic and social factors.Land Use Change Research and Simulation is an important way to predict future land use change and to providing optimal decision-making.It is also the most important part of studying global change.It mainly includes application different models and scales were used to simulate the land use,Land Use Change simulation with different regional characteristics and simulation of land use change under specific situation constraints.In recent years,due to the rapid economic development and the impact of land rocky desertification,the Karst land use change is fierce,therefore,the study of karst land use change characteristics and spatial distribution,the future regional land use management and rocky desertification control is important.Based on the data of land use in 1990,2000 and 2010,this paper uses ArcGIS and SPSS 18.0 software,combined with Markov model and DLS model to set up four different development scenarios,and analyzes the land use change,Characteristics and different driving factors on land use change in the study area,and then based on Markov model and DLS model to simulate the spatial distribution of land use in 2030 years under the four different scenarios of Natural Growth,Land Optimization,Economic Development and Ecological Protection.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)1990-2010,the land use change of the study area was fierce,and the change of different land types was different,and the influence degree of human land use was gradually increased.The area of forest land and construction land increased rapidly and changed greatly.Compared with the previous period,after 2000,the land use change was fierce,and the comprehensive land use degree was 8.25,which indicated that the rate of human development and utilization of natural environment increased and the degree of land use increased.(2)Logistic regression analysis showed that the factors affecting the performance of cultivated land were more affected,and the more suitable the distribution of cultivated land was more suitable.The precipitation had the greatest influence on the distribution of forest land,and the probability of distribution of forest land was serious.For the influencing factors of grassland distribution,the probability of rocky desertification is the most sensitive,and the probability of distribution of grassland in rocky desertification is larger.The influence of water is only the most sensitive to the distance of river and the influence on the distribution of construction land Factors,which,GDP,POP,lithology and other factors most sensitive.(3)The DLS model has a strong applicability to the study of land use change in karst area.Based on the land use data of the study area in 2000,the distance,elevation,distance from the road,the distance from the railway,the population density and the per capita GDP were selected from the aspects of natural factors and socioeconomic factors.The results show that the simulation results show that the Kappa index reaches 0.89,which indicates that the DLS model can be better than that of the DLS model,and the DLS model is used to simulate the land use change pattern in the study area.(4)The land use change simulation based on natural growth,land optimization,economic development and ecological protection shows that the land use change of typical karst mountainous area is significant as the development and utilization of land is increasing.The increase of forest land and construction land area is due to the decrease of cultivated land area and grassland area,which is also the direction of future land use change.Among them,the construction land shows a sustained growth trend,mainly due to population growth,economic development and urbanization process acceleration;the trend of decreasing the cultivated land is gradually weakened,from the implementation of the policy of returning farmland to forests and basic farmland protection;Which is mainly due to the large policy of returning farmland to forest project.The area of grassland is gradually reduced and the reduction rate is reduced.The change of water area is affected by the natural environment.(5)The results show that the DLS model has a good ability to simulate karst land use change.The conclusion can provide some reference value and reference for the relevant departments and future researchers to use the DLS model to study the research area in similar research area.