Scenario Simulation Of Land Use Based On Ecological Security In Ganzhou District

Ganzhou District of Zhangye city has always been known as the ?city of Hexi Corridor and the Southern Frontier?,which is a big agricultural area simultaneously.The development and change of land use is very important to the agriculture and ecology.There are some hidden dangers of land ecological security being due to the development of urbanization is the certain threat to the local ecological environment in recent years.Nowadays,sustainable development is the core idea of the development of the city,Therefore,We must put the regional ecological safety in the first place in order to achieve the protection of the ecological environment and maintain the unity of social and economic development in the area of city.The paper takes Ganzhou District of Zhangye city as an example,According to the influence of ?Analysis of land use factor--construction of ecological security pattern –establishment of atlas of land use suitability—simulation by CA-Markov model with ArcGIS10.1,ENVI5.3 and IDRISI17.0 as the computing platform,simulate the Development change of land use under the constraint of land ecological security pattern.The paper firstly simulates land use development scenarios in 2014 year using the CA-Markov model by two methods including the MCE(multiple evaluation)and automatic.The simulation results of Kappa coefficient(MCE)accuracy is 92.01%,and the automatic simulation is 87.39%.The Kappa coefficient shows that the prediction accuracy of CA-Markov model making use of the MCE method to make the land use suitability atlas is higher than that of the automatic simulation method.Therefore,Choosing MCE method including the two conditions of ecological security bottom line constraint and non-constraint,I have simulated the development of the land use situation of Ganzhou District in 2021 by MCE-CA-Markov model and showed that construction land area under the condition of ecological security bottom line constrain is less than the unconstrained scenario by the statistics.So MCE-CA-Markov scenario prediction based on Ecological Security bottom line constraint is more in line with the development trend of ecological security pattern.The results of this study show that:(1)The development change of land use is affected by natural and human factors.For examples,the cultivated land and construction land are mainly distributed at the slope of less than 7 degrees and the elevation of less than 1600 m,woodland mainly distributed at the slope of more than 25 degrees and the elevation of more than 2000 m,Bing affected by the slope and elevation.Land use types as the increase of distance from the administrative center,water area,construction land and the roads,have different trends of increase or decrease,Bing affected by distance factor.Based on the analysis of the influencing factors of land use,the results can provide a reference for the construction of ecological security pattern and the land use suitability atlas.(2)The construction of ecological security pattern is determined by three aspects: surface water resources,geological disasters and biodiversity based on the current situation of ecological development in Ganzhou district.On this basis,three kinds of pattern are superimposed and are classified according to three ways including the bottom line,satisfied and ideal.The paper Calculate the percentage of the comprehensive ecological security pattern in Ganzhou district,the results show that the ecological security pattern of bottom line percentage was 41.7%,the percentage of buffer security pattern is 43.2% and the ideal security pattern of the percentage was 13.7% in Ganzhou area.The ecological security pattern of bottom line is to maintain the basic stability of the ecosystem development,from the percentage,the bottom line of the ecological security pattern is the larger proportion,therefore,Ganzhou District bottom line pattern of ecological security are key areas we should be protected.(3)In this paper,we use method to simulate the land use situation of CA-Markov based on the MCE method under the condition of ecological security bottom line constraint and non-constraint,the former is scenario simulation 2,the latter is scenario simulation 1,Comparing the two scenarios in construction land of ecological security at the bottom line,satisfactory and ideal patterns in the three area,It found that the scene(two scene)of simulation of the construction area in the bottom line and satisfactory two kinds of pattern is less than first scene,Therefore,Scenario two is more in line with the development trend of ecological protection.