An Empirical Analysis Of The Impact Of The RMB Exchange Rate Change On Industrial Structure In Guangdong Province

The exchange rate,as economic price variable,plays an important part in the macroeconomic system,it not only influence the international balance between countries and economics,but also affect the distribution of the domestic resources,the integration and upgrade of industrial structure,it makes the function of the lever to regulate equilibrium of internal and external national economy.under the huge background of global economic integration and industrial transfer,Guangdong province is located in the forefront area of China's open economic,its industrial structure will face the further development under the influence of external environment such as exchange rate changes.In this paper,takes the impact of the RMB real effective exchange rate and other factors for the adjustment of industrial structure as the research object,Chooses RMB real effective exchange rate as the explained variable,systematically using panel unit root test,panel cointegration test and Fixed effects estimation method,Uses the panel data of the 21 prefecture level region in Guangdong province in 2005-2015,take the Guangdong province and the Pearl River Delta,eastern area,western area,north area as sample to do the empirical analysis,mainly draw the following conclusions: From the point of the influence of exchange rate on different industries,for the Pearl River Delta,eastern area,western area,north area,the appreciation of the RMB has significant inhibitory effect to the development of the second industry,has a significant role in promoting the development of the third industry.As for the impact of industrial structure for different areas from the change of RMB real effective exchange rate,1% appreciation of the RMB real effective exchange rate,will make the proportion of secondary industry in the Guangdong province and the Pearl River Delta,eastern area,western area,north area respectively fell 0.3813%,0.403%,0.0676%,0.4312%,0.0676%,will make the proportion of the third industry respectively increase 0.263%,0.311%,0.081%,0.433%,0.424%.Factors that per capita income can inhibit the proportion of the second industry,it has a promoting effect on the proportion of the third industry Guangdong province and the Pearl River Delta,eastern area,north area region.But For the western area is characterized by the opposite.And population factors has inhibitory effect on the proportion of the secondary industry of Guangdong province and the Pearl River Delta,eastern area,it has a significant role in promoting the proportion of the third industry.For western area and north area region is characterized by the contrary,have not passed the test of significance.In terms of foreign trade dependence,the improvement of The openness of the foreign economy will make the proportion of second industry decrease,the third industry rise,in the Guangdong province and the Pearl River Delta,western area,north area,has the opposite effect in the eastern area,only for Guangdong province and the western area have psssed significance test.FDI has significant inhibitory effect on the proportion of the second industry,and has a promoting effect on the proportion of the third industrial structure in the Guangdong province and the Pearl River Delta,eastern area,western area,north area,and all through the test of significance.