Research On The Prepayment Behavior Of Mortgage Backed Securitization In China

MBS is the highlight of the world financial innovation at the beginning of the middle of last century,which in half a century profoundly changed economic and social life in many of the countries around the world,and triggered a series of innovations in areas of rule,market,and technology.In 90 s of last century,housing system reforms in China had achieved the marketization of housing allotment,the demand of housing mortgage loan was exploding,the sharply increased proportion of using residential mortgage loan in commercial bank loans led to the more severe contradiction between short-term commercial bank loans and long-term asset utilization.In view of the asset superiority of housing mortgage loan,activating housing mortgage loan by mean of securitization has become the primary choice of commercial banks.However,since the MBS is at the early stage and the financial system is unsound in China,the premise of financial innovation is to control the financial risk.For the lender's behavior of the prepayment about personal housing consumption loan,it not only affects the accurate pricing of securitized products,but also may influence investors and even generates the labile factor of Chinese securities market and real estate market.Therefore,the prevention and reduction of adverse effects brought by prepayment play realistic significance to the analysis as well as research of the prepayment about personal housing consumption loan.The main reason of this early repayment behavior from the impact of housing mortgage lenders(income,interest rates,prices of factors),through the establishment of regression model,according to the monthly data of 2010-2016 year loan Jianyuan 2007-1 mortgage securitization products a total of 78 months,the monthly repayment rate calculated by the housing mortgage loan securitization products the prepayment rate,the influencing factors of the housing mortgage prepayment behavior analysis and empirical test results show that the residents of the housing,mortgage rates,and negatively related to prepayment monthly per capita disposable income and housing price and prepayment behavior there is a positive correlation between the residents monthly per capita disposable income increase and improved housing the price will make the possibility of prepayment behavior.The empirical results of monthly effects show that there is a monthly effect on the prepayment behavior of Mortgage Backed Securitization in China,that is,the prepayment behavior in January will be significantly reduced,and in March,it will suddenly rise again.These results are consistent with the reality of our country,and based on the analysis results,put forward to improve the housing mortgage loan securitization products in the loan contract,to strengthen the refinement of structured innovation product design etc.,in order to reduce the liquidity risk and Countermeasures of prepayment behavior brought to commercial bank.