A Study On The Factors Affecting The Prepayment In Mortgage-backed Securitization

China's housing mortgage securitization started late,opened pilot at the end of 2005 and was affected by the subprime mortgage crisis.The pilot stalled until the restart in 2012.China has only issued 30 housing mortgage loans,and the scale of issuance is very low in the balance of home mortgages.With the expansion of China's housing mortgage loans,housing mortgage securitization of the development potential is enormous.China's housing mortgage loan securitization business is still in the initial stage,the development is imperfect.It is necessary for commercial banks to pay attention to the priority risk of mortgage securitization.In this context,this paper uses theoretical analysis,situation analysis and combines theory with empirical methods,discussing the impact of various factors on the early repayment of housing mortgage loans mechanism from the macro aspects of the five factors and carry out empirical tests.First of all,this paper reviewed the research on the influencing factors of prepayment behavior at home and abroad,and introduced the research's background and significance.Secondly,it explains the early repayment of mortgage-backed securitization,describes the motive for early repayment and the principle of securitization of housing mortgage loan.This paper chooses the main influencing factors of the early repayment of mortgage-backed securitization from the macro level,analyzes the influence of the five factors on the early repayment of housing mortgage loans,the development of China's housing mortgage securities market and the basic situation of Jianyuan 2007-1RMBS.Thirdly,according to the collected data of 2007-1 RMBS,the multiple regression method is used to test the influence of each factor on the early repayment rate of mortgage.The empirical results show that over 5 years loan benchmark interest rate,the weighted average mortgage interest rate at the beginning of the next repayment period is negatively correlated with the prepayment rate,the capital market returns,per capita income of urban residents,the new housing price index and the early payment rate was significantly positive correlation.Finally,this paper puts forward some suggestions for the commercial banks to manage the early payment of housing mortgage loans from the perspective of optimizing the structure of housing mortgage loans,establishing a scientific and reasonable system of early payment of liquidated damages and accelerating the construction of housing mortgage database.Hope to provide some useful reference for commercial banks to pay early risk management.