Research On The Government Credit Rating Under The Model Of Local Governments Issue Debt Independently

As the central government liberalized restrictions on local government self-issuance of bonds,the local self-debt issuance model officially entered the stage of standardized marketization and operation in 2015,and the issuance scale of local government bonds showed a growth pattern.Credit rating,as the basic work of bond rating and issuance,is the first barrier to prevent the risk of debt default.At present,due to obstacles in many aspects,from the perspective of the current practice of local government credit rating research in China,there is no rating agency to carry out a rating business on local government credit,and only ratings directly issued by local governments on bonds are issued.Without relying on the results of local government credit ratings,the direct rating of local government bonds is undoubtedly unconvincing;the same is true in reality.Market rating agencies are issuing bonds to 30 provinces and cities in China other than Tibet.The ratings made are all AAA grades,but there are clear differences between the 30 bond issuers in terms of economy and resource endowment.The rating results do not reflect the real situation.Therefore,under such a background,the study of the issue of the credit rating of local governments is of some forward-looking and realistic significance.On the basis of summarizing the theory of domestic and foreign local government credit ratings,this article is expected to build a local government credit rating system that is consistent with China's national conditions,taking into account the effectiveness and operability,and providing local self-debt risk management and market further.Development as a basic work.The first line of research is to define the connotation of local government credit,clarify the target and content of the required rating,analyze the urgency and necessity of improving the local government credit rating system under the current situation of independent bond issuance model,and summarize the causes of the government credit risk.Comprehensively drawing on domestic and foreign research results,we constructed a multi-level rating index system consisting of three areas: local economic strength,institutional environment,and debt default risk.The debt default risk index is a measure of the overall state of government revenue and debt.By applying the KMV model,the debt default probability and the default distance are quantified.Then the default probability obtained is combined with the indicators of local economic strength and institutional environment,and the final credit rating is obtained through the analysis of the level and the cluster analysis of the two methods for the weight distribution and the assignment of the indicators.Through the establishment of a model,China's 30 inland provinces and cities except Tibet have been rated.The rating results show that Beishangguang and Zhejiang and Tianjin have the highest credit rating;Hubei,Hainan,Jiangsu,Shandong,and Fujian provinces have high credit ratings;Gansu,The credit ratings of ten provinces and cities in Henan,Hunan,Sichuan,Jiangxi,Ningxia,Shaanxi,Yunnan,Chongqing,and Xinjiang are fair;the credit ratings of six provinces in Hebei,Anhui,Jilin,Inner Mongolia,Shanxi,Guizhou,and Qinghai are low;Heilongjiang and Liaoning provinces have the lowest credit ratings.Finally,some suggestions for improving the credit rating of local governments were put forward.Including a sound government information disclosure mechanism to provide data support for rating;improve the form of income of rating agencies to prevent vicious competition;sort out the central and local fiscal relations,unified rating caliber;actively explore and improve credit rating technology and improve the overall credit rating quality.