An Calculating Of RMB Equilibrium Exchange Rate Based On BEER Model

Since reform and opening up,renminbi in exchange for US dollar has a rise and fall,bringing a certain influence for foreign trade and overseas investment and financing.So,in what within the scope of the target value of RMB exchange rate can be beneficial to the economic development,China's foreign trade and overseas investment and financing? Equilibrium exchange rate is an important reference gist of whether a currency is undervalued or overvalued,It is not only beneficial to the efficient allocation of resources,but also beneficial to the sustainable development.So Research the equilibrium exchange rate of RMB is a very important practical significance for making reasonable exchange rate range adjusting the balance of payments imbalances,promoting economic development.Based on the theory of BEER,discussing that the selected topic background and definition of the equilibrium exchange rate of RMB,through reading lots of literature,using 1998-2016 annualdata of GDP,TOT,TRADE,GOV,NFA,FDI,DIS,IIS tobe explanatory variable,RMB.real effective exchange rate is explained variable.By establishing VEC equation,the method of H-P,conclusion the characteristic of imbalance of RMB rate,and searching the factors to affect the equilibrium exchange rate of RMB.Based on the theory of BEER,by qualitative and quantitative analysis for each variable,building economic model to draw a conclusion:First,Along with the movement of equilibrium exchange rate of RMB exchange rate changes,and around the equilibrium exchange rate fluctuates up and down.Second,By contrast with the equilibrium exchange rate of the renminbi: 1,1998 years,the RMB is undervalued;2,2008-2009,RMB overvalued;3,2010-2011,the RMB is undervalued;4,2012-2014 the currency is overvalued;5,2015-2016,the RMB is undervalued.So,according to the above results,we strongly suggest the following proposal for misalignment of RMB rate: first,the people's bank of china must pay a currency intervention policy;Second,continuously strengthen risk prevention of the exchange rate;Third,continuing to improve the RMB exchange rate mechanism.