| A wave of urbanization is sweeping China,but it also caused many problems such as dense population,traffic jam and environmental pollution.Given this,the URT(Urban Rail Transit)gain a huge development.The URT is a construction project with large investment,so the government and social capital has a good cooperation to promote sustainable development of it.However there are conflict between the government and social capital,so the project need compensation from the government.Consider the uncertainty of the project,the research built dynamic optimization model of investment under uncertainty by using real options,and provide evidence for decision-making of government compensation through solving and analysing the optimization model.First,building the model to analysis the necessity of government compensation with real options under uncertainty in URT projects,in this model,social capital have to undertake the investment,construction,management alone,and have to operate in the fixed project period and project price for commonweal.According to irreversible investment theory under uncertainty,building the optimal investment decision model to analysis social capital investment process based on the project expected income flow and cost flow,and figure out the critical condition of social capital's investment.The result,verified by an real case,show that the project will not match up with the critical condition of social capital's investment in the fixed project period and project price,so the government must adopt compensation measures.It's indicated that government compensation is necessary in URT projects.Then,building the government compensation decision model to analysis the government compensation decision through investment compensation and fare-pricing compensation with the expected return level of social capital,the operating period,the operating price in PPP project of URT.The result,verified by a real case,show that it's stressful for the finance to apply only one method of the government compensation,so it's better to invest with two methods at same time,and this part aims to provide a standard and method for the government to determine the amount of compensation.Finally,analysis the natures of investment compensation,fare-pricing compensation,critical quantity of passenger flow,fluctuation ratio and expected yield,and then provide a reference for the decision of government compensation. |
PDF Full Text Request