Research On The Influencing Factors Of Inflation In China Based On The Model Of Time Varying Parameter State Spacel

Inflation is one of the important subjects of macroeconomic management in China.The study of inflation is always one of the hot topics in academia.Through extensive review of the relevant literature on the impact factors of inflation,,it is found that most of them are studied from the aspects of money,demand,cost and input factors,and there are many factors to study,but the comprehensiveness of the index selection is debatable the Based on this,this paper chooses various factors including currency,economic output,cost,international resource price,agricultural product price,financial market and real estate market.The time-varying parameter state space model is used to dynamically study the inflation Which analyzes the dynamic changes of inflation factors in the sample period,which is more reasonable than the static models such as VAR and SVAR,which is more in line with the real economy.Situation,the government and other relevant departments of macroeconomic management more reference value.Based on the availability of data,this paper collects and studies the dynamic effects of various factors on the inflation in China from January 2000 to December 2016.Through the repeated experimentation of the model,the model results are relatively stable Period analysis,and finally come to the following main findings:(1)In 2003-2005,inflation was mainly affected by GDP,agricultural prices,real estate market and other factors of the dynamic impact of GDP on the impact of inflation,the performance of demand-driven inflation.Inflation in 2006-2009 was mainly affected by the dynamic effects of exchange rate,agricultural prices and international agricultural prices.Among them,exchange rate factors have the greatest impact on inflation,which is characterized by input-type inflation.Inflation in 2010-2012 was mainly affected by agricultural prices,exchange rates,international agricultural prices and other factors,which affected by the price of agricultural products the most affected,the performance of structural inflation.Inflation in 2013-2016 was mainly affected by agricultural prices,GDP,exchange rate and other factors,is mainly influenced by agricultural prices,the influence of factors such as GDP,exchange rate,of which the influence degree of the largest agricultural prices,characterized by structural inflation.(2)In general,between 2003 and 2016,exchange rate factors,agricultural prices,GDP,real estate market factors,international agricultural prices and international energy prices have a very significant positive impact on inflation,among which agricultural prices have the greatest impact,The influence of exchange rate factors is the second.Money supply had no direct positive impact on inflation for a long period of time,and inflation may also be related to the direction of money supply.The dynamic impact of wage cost factors on inflation was not obvious.International non-energy prices have an inhibitory effect on inflation in China.The dynamic effect of the stock market on inflation was relatively weak,and the wealth effect of the residents was not obvious.In the near future,the dynamic effects of agricultural prices,GDP,real estate market,international agricultural prices and exchange rate factors on inflation have increased.Finally,based on the empirical analysis of time-varying parameter state space model,this paper puts forward the corresponding macroeconomic management suggestions.