An Analysis On The Financial Accelerator By The Fluctuation Of The House Price

This paper mainly studies the impact of the house price fluctuations on the financial accelerator effect.The existing research paper mainly include the following three aspects:the existence of financial accelerator effect,the mechanism of action and the research of non symmetry.Part of the article studies the financial accelerator effect of house price fluctuation.The study has the following three disadvantages: first,the volatility of the house price is too simple to measure;second,the analysis on the financial accelerator by the fluctuation of the house price is not enough.Third,the empirical test is not enough.This paper make up for these shortcomings,the monthly moving average method is used to measure the fluctuations of the house price;we analyze the mechanism of house price fluctuation on macroeconomic from the perspective of the enterprises and residents consumption expenditure.Finally,we use TVAR model to test the financial accelerator by the fluctuation of the house price,This paper is divided into two parts.The first pat is theoretical analysis,and the second is the empirical test.In the aspect of theoretical analysis,based on the analysis of the financial accelerator mechanism,the transmission mechanism of house price through the net wealth effect and expected effect has been elaborated,and thus have an impact on the macroeconomic fluctuation.Finally,the analysis of the mechanism of other factors on the financial accelerator is added.In the aspect of empirical analysis,we use the data of sales area and total sales from 2001 to March 2016 to calculate the national real estate price,and then calculate the change up the monthly rate,the growth of real estate prices monthly moving average processing rate,as a measure of the real estate price fluctuations.In addition to the output,fixed assets investment,the supply of monetary policy,exchange rate,credit as a variable.All data are monthly data from January 2001 to March 2016.To real estate price fluctuations as the threshold vector,using TVAR Model to calculate the threshold of real estate price fluctuation,respectively in the high and low areas on output and other variables impact.At the same time,it also analyzes the financial accelerator effect size and the financial accelerator effect of each variable on the real estate price fluctuations.Finally,this paper calculated the threshold value of the real estate price fluctuation is 0.0502,0.0502 as the threshold,the real estate price fluctuation range is divided into the high speed growth stage and the low speed growth stage.By using the generalized impulse response analysis and calculate the state transition probability,the financial accelerator effect of real estate price is obviously asymmetric.When the real estate price fluctuations in the higher zonesystem,the financial accelerator effect is more obvious.Of all impact,the impact of the fixed asset investment,credit and interest rate effect are more obvious,so as to prove the financial accelerator effect does exist in our country and the effect is asymmetric.At the end of the paper,from the aspect of controlling the house price fluctuation reasonably,we should make full use of the financial accelerator effect to make policies.