Empirical And Financial Forewarning Study On The Relationship Between Ownership Structure And Financial Risk

With the rapid development of the capital market in our country,the market competition is increasingly fierce,further strengthening the company's risk and complexity.In recent years,the examples of the listed companies entrapping themselves in financial crisis even bankruptcy due to their excessively pursuing economic benefits but ignoring the financial risks are too numerous to enumerate.Many factors affect the companies' financial risks,such as irrational guarantee,immoral management,adverse selection and improper related transactions.By analyzing these factors we can find that the unreasonable ownership serves as the deep cause of the financial risks of listed companies,fundamentally affecting the company's overall architecture.The unreasonable of the ownership of listed companies,as the blood of stock markets,has a great influence on the interests of the investors,directly related to the sustainability and stability of the stock market even the whole capital market.Therefore,the paper aims at the relationship between the ownership and financial crisis of manufacturing listed companies from the perspective of ownership structure and establishes the financial forewarning model based on the ownership property.Firstly,based on the background of the market economy,the paper combines the theories related to the ownership structure and financial risk,then puts forward research hypotheses and build regression models respectively from such four dimensions as the ownership liquidity structure,the ownership property,the ownership concentration,and equity balance.Secondly,by means of statistical analysis,the paper offers an overall description of the financial risks and ownership structures of the manufacturing listed companies in our country.Thirdly,the paper makes use of multiple linear regression model to analyze the effect of the ownership structures and financial risks of manufacturing listed companies.Finally,based on the ownership property,the paper builds,trains and tests the financial early-warning model of relationship between ownership structures and financial risks based on the optimization of the support vector machine(SVM)by the particle swarm algorithm(PSO).The results of empirical research point out that the proportion of tradable shares and non-tradable shares have no significant correlation with financial risks;the proportion of state-owned shares,as the helping hand of manufacturing listed companies,has a negative correlation with financial risks;the proportion of corporate shares has a less and less effect on improving and stabilizing a company's state of business;the proportion of managerial ownership has played a positive role in corporate governance,and its impact on the level of a company's financial risks gradually increasing;the relation between ownership concentration and financial risks is the most significant;the higher the degree of ownershipconcentration,the more conducive to control the company's level of financial risk;equity balance degree has a negative correlation with the financial risk levels,so moderately concentrated ownership structure of checks and balances should be established.The results of the financial forewarning model shows that the construction of such a model based on based the optimization of the support vector machine(SVM)by the particle swarm algorithm(PSO)is an effective attempt of applying the artificial intelligence algorithm to the area of economic management,which can offer some valuable guidance of analyzing a company's financial risks.