Research On The Exchange Rate Forecasting And The Influence On Financial Performance Of The Industrial And Commercial Bank Of China

The thesis is made for the purpose of studying methods of forecasting exchange rates and evaluating their impact on the financial performance of the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and making the choice of methods and tools for practical application.In the first chapter of the dissertation were considered the goals and tasks of scientific work,established the significance and scope of the study.Was also studied the literature concerning this research and analyzed the approaches of foreign and Russian authors.The second chapter was detailed studied basic information about the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China.Even were investigated the theoretical foundations of exchange rates,their classification and characteristics,including additional attention was paid to peculiarities of the exchange rate of the Yuan.Then was studied in details methods of forecasting as a whole and used on the currency market.In the third chapter conducted full financial analysis of Bank's financial statements,including vertical analysis,vertical-horizontal analysis,horizontal analysis and analysis of financial ratios.Was calculated the influence of the operations on the foreign exchange market for revenue and profit of the Bank,and discusses the advantages and disadvantages of the ability to predict exchange rates for the company.Was in practice considered such methods of forecasting currency rates,as fundamental analysis,technical analysis and statistical analysis and were established prerequisites for the method based on the usage of special computer programs.All the analyses were carried out for the period from 2014 to the present time.On the basis of all the methods used to forecast the exchange rates was calculated the impact they can have on financial results of the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China.And as a result the conclusions were made about possible practical application of methods of forecasting exchange rates in the real life.