| Since the twentieth century,one of the salient features of world economic development is the rapid development of the tertiary industry.As an important part of national economy,the tertiary industry is an important indicator,which measures the degree of socialization and economic development level.Maintaining the rapid development of the tertary industry and improving its proportion in the national economy,are important objectives of China in the current and future macroeconomic development.Therefore,it is important to study the developmental characteristics of the tertiary industry and its proportion,which has important theoretical and realistic significance for the achievement of above objectives.Practice from the economic development of the world,the sequence development of macroeconomic indicators do not usually rise at a constant speed,the impact of policy and external events affect the economic series,and form stage characteristics.For scientific understanding the mechanism of the tertiary industry development in our country,to further accelerate the development of the tertiary industry,provide decision-making basis for upgrading of industrial structure.So,different from traditional method,this paper discusses the development of tertiary industry from the perspective of structural mutation.In particular,introduceing the method of mutation point under Bayesian deduction.First,we use the likelihood function through the prior distribution and sample information.Then,use the Gibbs sampling and MCMC method to test the mutation time of the tertiary industry.Finally,use the BP variable point test method to test the mutation time of the tertiary industry’ proportion.We refer to time points before and after the major decision-making events,analysis of the reasons for the emergence of mutation time.The results show that the mutation time of the tertiary industry occurs in 1985,1996 and 2002,mutation time of the tertiary industry’ proportion occurs in 1985,1992,1999 and 2009.Before and after these time points,occurs a series of domestic and international major events,it is also strongly suggest that the future development of the tertiary industry in our country will not succeed without temporizeing and seizing the opportunity,which helps get a better and faster development. |
