Cointegration Model Of Structural Break And Its Application In The Economic Data Analysis

Cointegration theory is used to describe the long-term equilibrium relationship of economic data, it is also a powerful tool to describe the equilibrium relationship of data, and this is the economic meaning of cointegration. However, in the actual social environment, the longer the period of economic activities, the more likely economic system is influenced by external shocks, that lead to the data structure of the economic variables change, and lead to the original equilibrium relationship of data change. At this time if we do not consider the factor of structure mutation, to analyze and prediction economic data, it could cause larger prediction error, and usually adopt mutation data to eliminate or smooth processing and may cause the loss of useful information. In view of this, this paper introduces the cointegration theory of structural break to discusses the co-integration model of structural break in the application of economic data analysis.First of all, we summarize the research background, research significance and the general research situation of cointegration model of structural break at home and abroad of this article, and put forward the research purpose and main content of this article. Then introduces the basic concept and expression form of it, and introduces the two methods to find structural break point and error correction model simply. Followed by a period between partition method and the method of adding virtual variable, set up the cointegration model of structural break and error correction model between domestic tourism consumption foreign tourist income and economic growth respectively, and carries on the empirical analysis. Finally uses the statistical indicators and the image of fitting value and actual value of economic data to test the validity of the model, and with the cointegration model of not considering structural change for comparison. The empirical results show that cointegration model of structural break improve the prediction precision of the model, that has better sample fitting effect, and it can accurately reflect the cointegration relations between tourism development and economic growth, it shows that the model has important theory significance and good application value in economic data analysis.