Research On The Retailer's Multi-option Contract Ordering Strategy Considering The Loss Averse With Demand Information Updating

With the development of economic globalization,the competition among enterprises is becoming increasingly fierce.Under such circumstances,The objective of the agents in supply chain can be aligned by supply contracts.In the process of rapid economic and social development,consumer demand is more personalized,and the updated speed of products constantly increases,resulting in higher volatility in market demand.With demand uncertainty,the supply chain members can reduce the impact of the uncertainties by purchasing the option contract,and on the other hand,the demand information updating can reduce this uncertainty.At the same time,more and more studies have found that supply chain decision makers not only maximize their own expected returns,but also more of them have shown such as loss-aversion preferences.Therefore,this study aims to investigate the retailer's multi-option contract ordering strategy considering the loss averse with demand information updating.This thesis introduces option mechanisms and built a flexible two-stage ordering model based on demand information updating in spot markets,in order to explore the issue of the loss averse retailer's contract ordering strategy.The current study explores the retailer's loss-averse behavior according to the market demand and the spot market commodity prices,as to how to choose the number of implementation option contract and the purchase price in spot markets at the second stage.And how to choose the option contract order at the first stage,which solves the loss-averse retailers' one big decision problem in option contracts.Furthermore,the study researched on the optimal production decision-making issue after the loss-averse retailer signing the option contract in the mixed market.The study indicates that there exists optimal solution in the retailer's contract ordering strategy,and the strategy is changing with the demand information updating.In order to explore the potential value of option contracts,we introduced the concept of expected unit opportunity savings to measure the unit benefits of the use of options by the retailer in different markets.In addition,we compared the mixed market and pure spot market,and different scenarios of them,so as to analyze the impact of supply and demand competition in the spot market and options contract market.This study is helpful to develop a relatively intuitive option contract model,which gives some new insights into the supply chain option contract compared to other supply chain option contract studies in random spot markets and demand information environments.