| In recent years,the world financial crisis has had a huge impact on the global economic development.The international shipping industry has been the first to bear the larger brunt due to the characteristics of the export-oriented economy.The decline in world trade volume has led to more shipping space vacant,the efficiency of shipping supply chain lower.Therefore,improving the efficiency of the shipping supply chain,increasing the revenue of the shipping companies and reducing the operation cost has become the focus of many scholars.However,the traditional research of the shipping supply chain is based on the decision maker's ‘rational agent assumption',which is the goal of maximizing the expected profit.Since the prospect theory has been proposed,the characteristics of decision maker's loss aversion has been verified and applied widely.Therefore,from the perspective of loss aversion and mental account theory,this paper investigates the problem of over-booking decision and channel coordination based on option contract with a one-period two echelon supply chain composed of a container liner and a freight forwarder.The purpose is to reduce the risk of market uncertainty by optimizing the model of over-booking decision and option contracts coordination so as to realize the maximum benefit of the members in the shipping supply chain.The main contributions of the dissertation can be summarized in following aspects.Based on mental accounts,this dissertation constructed the overbooking decision model of loss-aversion container liner.Different from the traditional model based on the expected profits maximization,the loss aversion and mental account are introduced into the overbooking decision model.This dissertation studies the influence mechanism of different evaluation methods of utility function on overbooking decision by construct single mental accounts and multiple mental accounts overbooking decision model.The theoretical study shows that the two kinds of overbooking decision model based on mental accounts all exist a unique optimal solution to meet maximizes the container liner expected profit,and the numerical examples shows that the over-booking level of container liner is lower and the expected profits are higher which is based on the multiple mental accounts over-booking decision model.Based on multiple mental accounts,this dissertation constructs dual variable decision model which the freight forwarding given unit wholesale price and option contract with a one-period two echelon supply chain composed of a risk-neutral container liner and a lossaverse freight forwarder.The research shows that based on multiple mental accounts exist unique optimal solution of wholesale and option quantity meet the freight forwarder maximizes the expected profit,and revealing the variation relation between optimal solution with parameter through sensitivity analysis.Based on multiple mental accounts,this dissertation studies the option contracts of four kinds of liner shipping supply chain under the loss-aversion scenarios,and proposes the condition of channel coordination for liner shipping supply chain respectively.Firstly,the dissertation studies the coordination condition of the option contract of liner shipping supply chain when the wholesale price and option contract exist simultaneously.Then,assuming the unit wholesale price of infinite space,investigate the general option contract,the allowed the emergency reorder option contract option contract and the consider goodwill cost option contract separately,and analyzes the condition of channel coordination for supply chain.Finally,the theoretical study shows that the above four kinds of option contract can achieve supply chain coordination,and the numerical example analysis shows that the option contract allow an arbitrarily spread of the channel profits,and reveals variation trend between expected profits of the risk-neutral container liner and the loss-aversion freight forwarder with option parameter. |
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