The Impact Of Ruble's Exchange Rate Fluctuations On The Intensive And Extensive Margins Of Russian Trade

This article studies how exchange rate fluctuations affect firm export behavior,using the data that cover the universe of Russian export over the period of 2003–2016(including the period of crisis 2014 – 2016).Specifically,we examine exchange rate effects on an exporter's extensive and intensive margins.We analyze the factors that influence on the changes of dual trade margins and use correlation-regression analysis to estimate the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on extensive and intensive margins of exports.In this paper we have presented detailed analysis of the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on extensive and intensive margins of trade.According to the results based on the correlation-regression analysis considering the number of exporting firms(enterprise level of dual trade margin),we can conclude that depreciation of ruble during the period of crisis 2014 – 2016 leaded to increasing of extensive margin and decreasing of intensive margin in trade.But according to the results of the correlation-regression analysis based on the gravity equation(product – market level),we can conclude that depreciation of ruble leaded to decreasing of extensive margin and increasing of intensive margin in trade.Despite the fact that depreciation of the ruble rate leads to many problems both at the macro level and at the micro level of the country's economy,nevertheless,there are positive trends in the development of the country's exports and the entrance of new Russian companies to new foreign markets,as well as the promotion of exports of new goods.