Research On Flight Delay Warning Based On Delay Propagation

In recent years,the development of air transportation rapidly,and flight delays and propagation is more and more serious.To control and reduce flight delays is a long-term and major task of civil aviation management both at home and abroad.To analyze flight data,discover their inner features and find out the changing tendency of flight delay and propagation plays a guiding role in researching flight delays.Based on the study of flight delay related literature,this paper studies the problem from the following aspects:Firstly,a Bayesian network model based on flight string is established to simulate the relationship between delay propagation and flight delays,and to indicate the impact of abnormal operation conditions on the reliability of the flight plan.According to the analysis on the reliability of flight operations to find out the weak link of string,namely the key airport.And by using the weighted Markov chain model to predict overall delayed state of the key airport,reflecting the impact of airport random factors on the spread of flight delays in the string.Therefore,it is more accurate to predict the flight delay.According to the forecast results,the flight plan is adjusted accordingly,so as to improve the reliability of the flight plan.Secondly,considering the aircraft and crew is the main resource of flight,an aircraft and a crew in a day will often perform multiple consecutive flights.Therefore,if a flight delays in the flight string,delays may spread along these two flight resources to their downstream flights.This paper focus on the two flight resources,put forward two kinds of resource separation scheme,the effects of delay factors on flight departure delay and operation robustness of two cases were analyzed,and provides an effective means for quantitative analysis of flight delays.Finally,due to a variety of factors leading to flight delays,the corresponding flight delays are relatively complex.In different delay factors or different delay time,the delay of the corresponding service flight will have some difference.In order to improve the security situation of flight delay service,this paper through the evaluation of airline flight delays,put forward suggestions of service recovery under different conditions,such as different delay time condition,different delay reasons such.The above analysis of flight delays spread can help the leadership of flight delays make related issues management decisions.