Empirical Analysis On Correlativity Of CFLP-PMI Index And GDP

Purchasing Managers Index is released on the first working day of each month,and it has the advantages of timeliness,stability,simplicity and so on.This paper aimed at establishing a concrete model for the correlativity between CFLP-PMI index and GDP quarterly growth by comprehensively applying literature research method and quantity analysis method,and predicted the related trend of economy within a short period in the future through utilizing the current trend of PMI index and China's economic developing situation at present and finally,the meaning to government management was also calculated by analyzing the economic indicators.The 1^st chapter of introduction in this paper mainly introduced the background of PMI index's production,as well as literature review,research thought and research methods.The following one analyzed the rationality of China's PMI index and its significance as an economic indicator by introducing the basic information of PMI indexes in major countries and regions throughout the worlds as well as in China,then presented the important meaning of economic prediction to government's public administration and the possibility of China's PMI index as an indicator of economic growth.The 3^th chapter collected the concrete data of CFLP-PMI index and GDP quarterly growth since 2005 for selection and arrangement,and the time-series trend chart of these two groups of data was produced to make a correlation analysis between data,and then a positive correlation was proved to exist between CFLP-PMI index and GDP quarterly growth,then got the common function relationship between CFLP-PMI and GDP quarterly growth by applying related mathematical software and the fitted curve was also made.The following chapter took ADF unit root test and co-integration test to gradually screen variables,a long-term equilibrium relationship was found between GDP quarterly growth and CFLP-PMI index and additionally,the error correction model between both of them was established.The final one analyzed the CFLP-PMI index in 2016,to further verify the model by the one in the 4^th chapter and data of CFLP-PMI and GDP quarterly growth in 2017 for economic data test,and further expounded the use of the PMI index forecast macroeconomic management significance of economic growth..This paper discussed the mathematical function relationship between CFLP-PMI and GDP quarterly growth by MATLAB software and numerous fitting methods to demonstrate the mathematical fitting curve between both groups of data;deeply analyzed the time series data by Eviews software to get the error correction model between variables.This model organically integrated both of them together and found a close relationship between GDP quarterly growth and CFLP-PMI.In a short term,the changes of CFLP-PMI would result in the variation of GDP quarterly growth for a same direction.From the model's estimated value of coefficient,when the rapid fluctuation deviated the long-term equilibrium,error correction mechanism would rectify this deviation to adjust non-equilibrium state into an equilibrium one by 25%of adjustment efforts.