The Spillover Effect Of The Unconventional Monetary Policy Of The United States And Japan On China

Since the financial crisis,The economies of countries represented by the United States have been hit hard,As the financial crisis spread,Interest rates have almost fallen to near zero in all countries,Lehman brothers and other major financial institutions failed,Central Banks are starting to find out,Interest rates can't be lowered,Conventional monetary policy has not stopped the economy from worsening,The failure of the monetary policy transmission mechanism has left the market unbalanced,In order to get out of the economic crisis early,To prevent the economy from contracting more and more chronically,Central Banks have taken various unconventional measures to deal with the economic impact of the crisis.In addition,in the context of economic globalization,Countries are increasingly economically connected,China as a representative of emerging economies,Economic relations between the United States and Japan and other advanced economy are closely linked.The use of unconventional monetary policy has gradually restored the economy of the United States and Japan,But inevitably,spillover effects have had a profound impact on China's economy: It is seen as a rise in prices,a devaluation of the currency,a decline in output,and a reduction in total exports.Therefore,research the United States and Japan two economies unconventional monetary policy impact on China's practice,and discusses how to deal with the Chinese economy the negative impact of monetary policy of our country have a certain research significance and practical value.To intuitively express the impact of unconventional monetary policies on China by the two major economies of the United States and Japan,Based on the existing research results of unconventional monetary policy spillover effects,this paper adopts the method of qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis.First systematically from the aspects of theory of unconventional monetary policy spillover effect theory,analyzing the model of the two countries and from the form to unconventional monetary policy,policy,target,transmission mechanism and the existence question and the risk for a simple overview,secondly combing the United States,Japan,unconventional monetary policy practice,then use VAR model and select from January 2008 to January 2017 the monthly data of the sample interval,select variables include: China's broad money supply CM2,interest rate CR,consumer price index(CPI,total export EX,industrial added value growth rate GIAV;Us broad money supply UM2,federal funds rate UR;Japan's broad money supply JM2,overnightinterest rates JR,through unit root test,cointegration test after do figure empirical test,impulse response and variance decomposition analysis of the United States and Japan two big economies unconventional monetary policies and the effects of the variables in the China.The results showed that the United States and Japan the unconventional monetary policy implementation of the two countries on China's economy and monetary policy,and so on the negative effects of is real,but the unconventional monetary policy,the spillover effects of China's broader influence bigger;Japan's unconventional monetary policy has a weak impact on China.Finally based on the above empirical results put forward China's response to the United States and Japan with the impact of unconventional monetary policy countermeasures and the future of China how to use unconventional monetary policy: improve the monetary policy independence,the monetary policies to strengthen international cooperation and coordination;To enhance the international status of the RMB and enhance the voice of the international community;Deepen supply-side reform and optimize the industrial structure;We will strengthen capital flow management and improve the structure of foreign exchange reserves.