A Research On The Commodity's Price, Transaction And The Correlation With The Chinese Factors

Commodity's price,trading mechanisms and the correlation with the Chinese factors have been caused the concern from all parties.In recent years,sharp fluctuations in commodity prices have triggered a debate over the causes of the phenomenon.And this problem has not yet been thoroughly studied.Next,based on the discussion of these topics over a longer duration,we try to set up a unified framework by combining the theoretical analysis and empirical analysis.Moreover,the paper tries to get the relevant conclusions as a reference for the study of Chinese commodity strategy.In the aspect of theory research,this paper takes the principal component analysis as the foundation that will be incorporated into the framework of the commodity price volatility.And it will progressively discuss the commodity trading operation and the correlation with the Chinese factors,and it puts forward a series of suggestions.From the perspective of empirical research,based on the GARCH model and VAR model,the copper price is studied,we take into account the variables in a series of influenced factors,such as the downstream products of the copper,the competitive substitute products of the copper,international factors and we introduce a series of China's macroeconomic variables,such as GDP,INGDP,currency supply,imports,exports,production,etc.,to quantify “Chinese factor” and study their impact on the copper's price in a dynamic model.Finally,the paper draws a conclusion that the factors all have significant effects on the price of copper,and have different effects.