Study On The Trends And Affecting Factors Of Terms Of Trade

In recent years,with the fast development of opening to the world,the economy of China has developed fast,It is also achieved great focus from all over the world.As one of the main force of economy development,our country's scale of foreign trade has increased greatly,the total of trade go up to the high level of the world.The total import and export of goods is 24330 billion in 2016 in the first place of the world.But at the same time,all kinds of trade issues outstanding.Export products competitiveness is not strong,cannot compete with other country's products,due to the amount is large but no guarantee of quality,so the benefit is hard to improve.The terms of trade can be used to measure a country's foreign trade benefit,the aim of this paper is to study the terms of trade so that through the research can help our country develop favorable trade policy.However,the existing literatures mostly study during a period of the term of trade,ignore the important year of 2008.With the change of the country and international situation,the trend of term of trade has also changed.Therefore,it is necessary for us to compare different trend and factors before and after the financial crisis,in order to provide advice for Chinese enterprises under the new situation of international trade.Firstly,in this paper,the studies of the terms of trade has carried on the system,on the basis of related theory analysis summarizes the deficiency of existing research,explore the terms of trade changes before and after the financial crisis to further advance the meaning and value of foreign trade in our country.Secondly,on the relevant theoretical mechanism affecting the terms of trade,and labor productivity are proposed according to the theory analysis,technology progress,exchange rate,industrial structure and new quantitative easing policy after the financial crisis is the important factors that affect the terms of trade.Then the change trend of terms of trade from 1996 to 2014 in our country are analyzed,the comparison of the financial crisis on the impact of changes in the terms of trade in our country.Finally,by using econometric model,this paper uses the panel data of 28 manufacturing industry are analyzed the influence factor of the price terms of trade changes before and after the financial crisis.Financial crisis in the United States as the boundary,respectively from 1996 to 2007 and from 2008 to 2014,28 manufacturing industry in our country carries on the regression analysis of the price terms of trade,the results before and after the contrast and analysis of the reason.The result shows that the growth rate of labor has negative influence on the price terms of trade.Technological progress and exchange rate before and after the financial crisis have positive influence on the price terms of trade.The optimization of industrial structure before the financial crisis leads to the deterioration of the price terms of trade,and change the direction of impact to positive after the financial crisis.Monetary policy has also positive influence on the price terms of trade.Finally this paper put up four aspect measures from the increase investment in human capital,encouraging independent innovation and technological progress,import the RMB exchange rate system reform and continue to optimize the import and export commodity structure to improve the present situation of the terms of trade.