The Risk Identification,Risk Measurement And Risk Warning Of The Local Government Investment And Financing Platform

The investment and financing platform of local government(IFPLG)is the combination of government resources and market forces by local government,and it is a great innovation to investment and financing model of China and promote China's urban construction and economic development.In response to the 2008 financial crisis,the rapid expansion of the IFPLG maintains the economic growth,but also bring many risks.Then,the central authorities continue to strengthen supervision,introduction policies,amend the laws and regulations to draw a clear boundary of the relationship between the local government and IFPLG,leaving the platform company huge debt liability.The opinions of the State Council on strengthening the management of local government debt(Article NO.43)issued in 2014 and the new budget law introduced in 2015 are the practice of the above-mentioned spirit.On the other hand,the revised new budget law formally gives the local government the right to issue bonds.In the first half of 2017,the land reserve special debt and toll highway special debt guidance have opened up a new and lawful financing channels for local governments.Local governments,with their new sources of funding,do not have to bear the huge debts left by the IFPLG's history,will speed up the entanglement of the platform companies,which will significantly reduce the burden on government debt and maintain the government's balance sheet in health status.But on the other hand,with the loss of local government credit,platform company's risk will increase,the deterioration of the credit situation superimposed financial deleveraging and once the company suffered a debt chain break,short-term liquidity loss which will led to the financial institutions broke out bad debts Crisis,and even lead to China's economic crisis.According to the above background,this paper takes the IFPLG risk issues as the research object.The first part is the introduction part,mainly elaborated the research background,the research significance,the research methods and the content,carries on the related literature review,summary the article innovation point and the research insufficiency.In the second part,we will expounds the risk mechanism and risk transmission path of the platform company.First,discribe IFPLG's development and growth from the time sequence;and then,based on GONE theory to explain the risk mechanism of the expansion of the IFPLG's debt;Finally,explores the path of IFPLG'srisk spreading to the outside world from the financial institutions and local governments which closely related to the IFPLG.The third part describes the IFPLG's risk identification and measurement methods.First,expounds the risk performance of the IFPLG from the aspects of financing,investment and debt service,and then expounds its influence on the IFPLG from the macroeconomic factors,the regional economic situation,the platform's own quality and the financial market factors.Last,introduces the risk measurement method of gray relational analysis,including the index system of risk measurement based on risk influencing factors,and uses CRITIC objective weighting method to determine the index weight.The fourth part is empirical analysis of risk measurement which based on Zhejiang Province IFPLG's data.First,use urban investment company's data as the representative to discribe the status of the country and Zhejiang IFPLG;Second,we choose 21 IFPLGs from Blue Book of Urban Investment:Annual Report on Development of Urban Investment of China(2016)as research object which belong to Zhejiang province,and extract IFPLG's data from the bond report which disclosure in the Wind Database;select government and regional economic data from Zhejiang Statistical yearbook and Statistical Communique on national economic and social developmen.Combine with the above theoretical analysis,makes an empirical analysis of Zhejiang's IFPLGs.The first step of the empirical results shows that the government subsidy accounts for the largest proportion of the platform net profit,quick ratio and EBITDA interest protection factor,which can affect the risk of the platform company's risk assessment.The second part of the empirical Out of the platform of the company's comprehensive score shows the general score is not high,close to 0.6 pass,but the overall risk can control.The fifth part is the risk early warning,first,based on the indicators of the design of a more complete platform for the company early warning mechanism,the overall early warning process is set to information collection,data processing,and then the index value of the judge,write a risk report for high-level decision,Take measures,the process in the end and then become historical data back to the front to form a database.Then,we build the early warning model of the early warning mechanism,mainly to set the warning threshold,and divide the early warning interval.Finally,based on the data of the previous chapter,we use the model,the median and the mean The composition of the measured threshold shows that 21 platform companies are not in a highly hazardous area,but 2/3 of the companies are in low or high risk areas.The sixth part is the conclusion of this article and the related policy suggestions.The first is the summary of the full text.and then,from the centralgovernment,local governments,financial institutions and platform companies to make their own four points of view,the central government's macro-level recommendations for institutional innovation;second suggested that the local government to strictly manage the debt and integration of regional resources to enhance the company's operational capacity;Institutional standards proposed to strengthen the pre-approval criteria and the late follow-up monitoring;from the platform of the company's own point of view proposed a sound system,well-managed and market-oriented operations,enhance their profitability;Finally,the summary of this article.