Research On Individual Decision-making Model Under Uncertain Circumstances

In the uncertain context,the individual decision theory has gone through from the utility maximization principle to the expected utility theory,the subjective expected utility theory,and then to the general expected utility theory,until the outlook theory as the main representative of the non-expected utility theory.In this process,although the decision-making theory has been continuously developed and improved,but there are still some problems,one of the most prominent is the increasingly complex decision-making theory,difficult to understand and practical application.First,in the study of individual decision-making theory,it is lack of the analysis of human nature in reality which has caused the discrepancy of theory and reality,thus ignoring non-economic factors that has an important impact on individual decision-making.Second,the analysis of logic of decision-making theory and even management theory,is not uniform with marginal analysis in economics.Third,for the treatment of risk and uncertain factors,the theories define the value of the weight of the method,and have a large deviation with subjective reality.This thesis proposes “Theory of Decision-making”,which reconstructs individual decision-making theory in the base of bounded rationality,by using the theoretical analysis,system methods,comparative analysis and other research methods.On the one hand,“Theory of Decision-making” preserves the expected form of the future utility of the existing decision-making theory,and at the same time it takes in some innovation,solving the existing problems of other decision-making theories,then achieving the explanation of related effects and paradox.“Theory of Decision-making” is carried out mainly in two ways:First,it studies individual decision-making psychology,and analyzes human nature in reality based environmental factors.As the disadvantages of the individual,people has material needs(economic factors)and spiritual needs(non-economic factors).Everyone is in the pursuit of the future maximization of the expected utility of both material and spiritual.Second,it puts forward individual decision function based on “Theory of Decision-making”.In decision-making,on the one hand,the future utility of prediction by people is defined as the marginal prediction utility which is based on the premise of a benchmark;on the other hand,marginal prediction utility needs to be adjusted by adding the subjective probability because it is not sure whether marginal prediction utility can be achieved in future.Compared with the existed theories,“Theory of Decision-making” has its advances as well as deficiencies.But it still did not give the specific form of marginal utility and the subjective probability.Anyhow,the proposal of “Theory of Decision-making” based on bounded rationality has certain theoretical and practical significance,because it provides a new thinking and research framework for decision-making theory research.