A Study On Prediction Model For Financial Crisis Of The Listed Companies In Hong Kong

As one of the global financial centers,Hong Kong's securities market is very developed and it attracts many domestic and foreign investors.The "Shanghai and Hong Kong stock market trading interoperability mechanism pilot"(referred to as "Shanghai and Hong Kong tong")is an important measure of China's capital market's opening up."Shanghai and Hong Kong tong" greatly deepens the exchanges and cooperation between the capital markets of Chinese mainland and Hong Kong,it also expands the investment channels for both investors and enhanced the competitiveness of cross-strait capital markets.As improvement of Chinese capital market opening-up level,the communication of Hong Kong and the mainland's capital market will become more and more deeply.The main component of the Hong Kong stock market is the stock market.The stock market includes the Main board and GEM.The Hong Kong stock market accepts public offering of companies from different districts and countries,so the listed companies come from around the world.To facilitate the management,the Hong Kong Stock Exchange requires listed companies to disclose information in accordance with the requirements of the Listing Rules,but the accounting standards for financial reporting are not strictly limited to one.Due to attaching the importance of companies' sustainability,Hong Kong stock market rarely forced the delisting of the companies.The number of the listing companies is large,and the companies' performance are not all good,which makes the risk's existence in the market.Stock investors and other stakeholders need to be careful when making investment decisions.This paper mainly includes the following contents.1)The research background and significance of prediction model for financial crisis of the listed companies in Hong Kong is showed and the related Domestic and foreign literature is reviewed.2)The relevant basic knowledge of financial crisis is introduced and the often used models are enumerated.By comparison,the logistic regression model is chosen as the perfect model for Hong Kong listed company.The theoretical basis of the logistic regression model is introduced.3)Combined with the delisting situation and the performance of companies,the financial crisis company is effectively defined.The data normalization standard of listed companies in Hong Kong is also analyzed.This paper selects appropriate training samples and test samples,and constructs the index system of financial crisis early warning model.4)Taking the companies in the GEM as an example,this paper constructs the logistic regression model and the logistic regression model based on the factor analysis of Hong Kong stock market.The results show that the logistic regression model has high predicti on accuracy,and the logistic regression model based on factor analysis can extract the common factor model index which is useful to extract the principle factors of the financial crisis.Therefore the two models could be used in the study of Hong Kong listed companies.Finally,it shows the research conclusion,further research innovations and shortcomings.