An Analysis Of The Economic Effect Of China’s Fiscal Policy Under The Double Goals Of "Controlling Debt-Steady Growth"

At present,China faces the problems of greater downward pressure on the economy and increasing government debt.How to give full play to the effectiveness of fiscal expenditures and tax policies under the new economic normal and control the increasing scale of debts?In the context of economic downturn,It is especially important that the economy grows steadily and steadily over the long term.And whether fiscal expenditure and taxation policy can play a role in steady growth and debt control.Its core lies in the setting of fiscal expenditure and tax policy,and whether the above policy objectives can influence the micro-subject behavior and ultimately balance output and consumption And investment and other macroeconomic variables.Based on the research results,this paper first builds a five-part DSGE model that includes residents,final product producers,intermediate producers,financial authorities and monetary authorities.By introducing debt control and stability in the government’s fiscal policy targets,The dual objective of growth is to reflect the endogenous feedback mechanism of fiscal policy adjustment on the scale of government debt.Among them,inhabitants maximize the utility according to their utility function and budget constraint.According to the setting of minimizing profit maximization cost,monetary authorities adopt the Taylor rule that pegs inflation and output gap to implement the corresponding monetary policy.Secondly,through the combination of Bayes parameter estimation and references,we discuss the impact of fiscal policy on macroeconomic variables such as output-consuming investment inflation from the two levels of government fiscal expenditure and tax policy,and further divide the fiscal expenditure For the government investment expenditures and government spending,the tax policy is divided into consumption tax,labor income tax and capital income tax these three taxes.Analysis of the implementation of the five fiscal policy tools and the effectiveness of the comparison between them.Finally,on the basis of analyzing and comparing the implementation effect of each fiscal policy tool,the conclusion and the corresponding policy suggestion of the research are put forward.Through various types of impulse response of the government fiscal policy impact,and then analyze the conclusions can be drawn:First,the expansion of government investment spending on the long-term output of the most obvious effect,expanding government investment spending is better than tax cuts Effect,can promote more long-term economic growth.Second,the tax deduction of consumption tax from the influence of consumption can most directly promote the consumption.Third,increasing the government spending on the debt accumulation of the greatest effect.Fourthly,reducing the capital tax from the impact on investment can undoubtedly directly promote the increase of private investment.Fifthly,from the point of view of inflation,the effect of increasing government consumer spending on rising inflation is the most obvious.Under the dual objectives of the government’s fiscal policy of controlling the debt and stabilizing the economic growth,there are big differences in implementing the pro-active fiscal policy so as to stimulate the economy,and even the contrary results.The government investment expenditure has the best effect on stimulating output increase and has a long-term positive effect.This shows that investments in education and health and national defense and infrastructure construction can not only promote the development of some industries in the short term And progress,the key is that these long-term investments can accumulate a considerable amount of social public capital,enter social production and increase the marginal productivity of social production elements such as capital and labor so as to create a positive positive external effect.However,it needs some time to exert positive externalize.For after all,the accumulation of public capital also needs a longer-term process in order to give full play to the role of promoting the productivity of the entire society.