| Investment decision-making under uncertainty is an important research direction for each investment and supervision department.The financial crisis of 2008 and the European sovereign debt crisis of 2010 exacerbated the uncertainty of global markets,and in response to the contagion of foreign crises,the Chinese government has enacted a series of economic policies to prevent contagion to the mainland.Although succeeded in avoiding the financial crisis in a macroscopic sense,which keeps China from developing at a high speed while the foreign economy stagnates,the micro-sector suffer from different situations in the crisis and panic,especially in the real estate market.Today,under the leadership of Comrade Xi Jinping and the newly established State Council's Financial Stability Development Committee,the task of serving the entity economy,preventing and controlling financial risks and deepening financial reform is the goal of the group,demonstrating the need to prevent financial risks and stabilize financial markets at this stage.In addition,The Central financial leadership group will stabilize the real estate market as an important part of its work in 2017.In 2016,the investment in real estate development,which was deducted from the land acquisition fee,accounted for 11.2% of the GDP,4.8% higher than 6.4% in 2004.Therefore,the formulation of reasonable and effective real estate policies and the steady and healthy development of the real estate market will not only help stabilize the land finance,promote economic development,but also help solve the problems of real estate bubbles and regional inventory excesses.Through quantifying the uncertainty of real estate policy,this paper studies its influence on real estate development investment.We find that the conditional variance of macroeconomic variables,which does not have a clear source of uncertainty,are widely used to measure uncertainty by the scholars devoted to the real option theory;besides,the change of government and policy is also used despite the lack of continuity and accuracy;the economic policy uncertainty index compiled by Baker and Stanford University is widely used by domestic and foreign scholars,which is characterized by universality and continuity,but inconsistent with sensitivity of each industry to policy and does not identify the specific risks facing each industry,nor does it define the policy risks facing the real estate market.In consideration of the lack of uncertainty index of real estate policy and the important position of the real estate market in China's economy,this paper quantifies the uncertainty of real estate policy.We use the method of Baker in constructing the uncertain index of economic policy,and measure the uncertainty of real estate policy with the quantitative change of real estate policy.In order to build real estate policy uncertainty index,this paper uses Web Crawler technology to crawl real estate policy information through the National Trust Real Estate Information network.In addition,to control the interference from other investment opportunities,this article uses six instrument variables as follows: sales growth rate,net operating cash inflow,TQ,GDP growth rate and seasonal dummy variables,covering the enterprise itself,industry development,macro opportunities,and periodicity.Taking into account the differences of micro-characteristics of real estate enterprises,this paper further analyzes the learning ability,asset scale,circulation market value and equity concentration of the real estate enterprises as the adjusting variables in 4 aspects.The nature of equity and regional difference are the salient characteristics of real estate enterprises,especially when faced with uncertainty of real estate policy.It is of practical significance to study the regulative function of these two indexes and to analyze the orientation of real estate policy.Therefore,based on the micro-feature classification of enterprises,this paper also analyzes the influence of the property and regional difference of the property on the investment of real estate enterprises.In this paper,we study 138 real estate companies listed in Shanghai and Shenzhen,according to the category of SFC industry,range from the first quarter of 2012 to the first quarter of 2017,and the sample number is 2898.The sales growth rate SG,the operating cash net inflow CF,TQ and so on data mainly comes from the Wind database,the GDP data comes from the National Bureau of Statistics.In the end,this paper draws the following conclusions through the empirical analysis of fixed effect model:First,the policy uncertainty has a remarkable inhibition to the real estate development investment;Second,the reduction of learning ability,asset size,circulation market value and ownership concentration will enhance the inhibition from the policy uncertainty;Third,in non-state-owned enterprises,the policy uncertainty has a more significant inhibition in the real estate enterprises with less learning ability,circulation market value,the small ownership concentration;in the eastern,the policy uncertainty has a more significant inhibition in the enterprises with less market value and equity concentration.The above research finds that real estate policy uncertainty has a significant inhibitory effect on real estate investment.In view of the real estate market plays an important role in land finance and economic development,as well as the current real estate bubble and regional inventory problem,our government should establish a long-term effective real estate market regulation mechanism;promote the real estate tax legislation;rent and purchase simultaneously;adapt to local conditions and urban planning;classifying control and precise control. |
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