The Disequilibrium Analysis With Supply And Demand Of China's Rare Earth Market

This paper takes the unbalanced supply and demand of China's rare earth market as the research object,on the basis of the research status of the rare earth market,comprehensively studys the imbalance between supply and demand in China's rare earth market with the application methods of qualitative analysis,quantitative analysis,theoretical analysis and practical analysis.The main contents and conclusions of the paper are as follows.First of all,this paper analyzed deeply the global and China's rare earth resources and the supply and demand characteristics of the rare earth market,founding that China's rare earth resources are rich in reserves and complete varieties,and China occupies a pivotal position in the supply and consumption of the global rare earth resources.Overall,the total supply and demand of rare-earth market is increasing year by year,but showing a significant imbalance.And it is predicted that the supply and demand gap of the future rare-earth market will continue to expand,which may show a more obvious overdemand.Secondly,based on the theory of disequilibrium,this paper made a theoretical definition of the concept of supply and demand in rare earth market,and qualitatively discussed the characteristics,structural mechanism and unbalanced factors of China's rare earth market.It is found that China's rare earth market is characterized by unbalanced,decentralization,buyer monopoly,low price,rampant smuggling and strong policy intervention,and price,technology,cost and policy affect the supply and demand of rare earth market to a certain extent.Thirdly,this paper based on the hyperbolic linear polymerization equation,combining with the actual influence factors of the unbalanced supply and demand of the rare earth market in China,selecting the relevant data of 2000~2016 years,constructing a nonequilibrium econometric model for the supply and demand of the rare earth market,measuring the correlation between variables by the grey correlation analysis.The results are all in accordance with the normal principle,the rare earth effective demand(DEM)has a significant positive correlation with rare earth import quantum(IM)and gross industrial production(VALUE),and has a significant negative correlation with industrial enterprise debt(DEBT);the rare earths effective supply(SUP)has a significant positive correlation with rare earth price(P),rare earth patents number(TECH),rare earth export quota(QUOTA),and fixed assets investment in mining industry(INVEST),and has a significant negativecorrelation with total wages of workers in the mining industry(WAGE).Fourthly,in this paper,the non-equilibrium index was introduced to investigate the development direction and evolution degree of the supply and demand of China's rare earth market in 2000~2016,and 4 warning stages were divided according to the degree of change of non-equilibrium.Founding that in the period of observation,the unbalanced trend of supply and demand in rare-earth market in China is basically changing from effective supply greater than effective demand to effective demand greater than effective supply.and most of the time the rare earth market is in an excess of supply.The supply and demand gap of rare-earth market in China has seen many years of heavy alarm,and most of the time rare earth market is in an excess of supply.Although it has eased in recent years,it still needs the government to continue to improve the corresponding macro adjustment measures.The results show that the application of the non-equilibrium theory and its econometric model in the rare earth market has a great effect.The theoretical and empirical discussion in this paper can provide theoretical basis and decision support for the balanced development of supply and demand in China's rare earth market in the future.