Research On The Scale Of Rare Earth Strategic Reserve Based On System Dynamic

In the21st century,Rare earth resources are playing an increasingly important role inall fields.Rare Earth is a national strategic resource,and developed countries haveestablished system of Rare Earth reserves.Although our country has rich Rare Earthresource,for a long time,Rare Earth raw material mining area has been lacking effectivesupervision,Rare Earth industry lacks systematic planning,Rare Earth products lackstechnical innovation,which are resulting in Chinese Rare Earth trade in a passive positionlong-term,and which also have a negative impact of Rare Earth industry.It is our inevitablechoice to reserve the rare earth resources,it is an important part of the national political,economic and security,it is a important safeguard of the sustainable development for China.This paper uses system dynamics to study the size of our Strategic Rare EarthReserve.Firstly,on the basis of literature,the paper sort concept and method of StrategicRare Earth Reserve.Secondly,using comprehensive analysis method to describe currentsituation of resource utilization and the status of Chinese Rare Earth industrydevelopment,analyzing the strengths and weaknesses of China’s rare earth industrydevelopment,emphasizing the necessity and urgency of Rare Earth reserve.The successfulexperience of Western countries on the policy of Rare Earth Reserve werereferenced,combined with the situation of China’s Rare Earth industry,then analyzing thestrategic reserves of rare earth relevant factors,choosing the main factors to build the model,and two schemes were designed to predict Chinese Rare Earth resources in reserve andwhen to reserve in the next15years.Scheme1designed range from-0%to+0%, andaccumulated reserves of rare earth was predicted720551tons in the next17years, i.e. thestrategic reserve was720551tons. However the value of fluctuation coefficient of the gapbetween supply and demand of rare earth was, the government would adjust to reserve orrelease. Scheme2designed range from-20%to+20%, the strategic reserve was predicted461331tons in the next17years, government adjusted to reserve or release just outsidethis range,in order to adjust market supply and demand,thus the fluctuation of price wasreduced.Finally,Rare Earth reserve system should be constructed for making scientific andreasonable dynamic adjustments along with changing market for China’s Rare Earth,while providing policy recommendations for the establishment of Rare Earth reserve systembased on application for results of the simulation model.