Research On Risk Supervision Of China's Stock Index Futures Based On Market Risk Measurement

Stock index futures is a stock price index as the subject of financial derivatives,the world's first stock index futures in the 20th century,80 was born in the United States.Stock index futures since then in the world economy in the field of rapid growth,until now has become the largest number of global trade futures varieties.In 2006,after the establishment of China's financial futures exchange,China also pay more attention to the development of the market and on April 16,2010 launched the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index as the subject of stock index futures.This is for investors to add a new hedging tool at the same time,but also makes China's capital market structure is more perfect,more diversified types of financial derivatives.However,the stock market in the financial derivatives market not only has the characteristics of general derivative products,it also has its own unique personality.It can be said that stock index futures produced like a "double-edged sword",although to avoid the risk but also brought other risks.Especially in the development of China is not mature enough and the risk of their own circumstances,once investors can not correctly understand the market risk,regulators can not be tightly supervised on their own and the entire capital market may bring unpredictable losses.So how can we do both the development of stock index futures,but also to avoid the risk?At this time the perfect regulatory system is very important.In order to ensure the smooth operation of China's stock index futures market,China must actively refer to the experience of foreign mature markets,and actively analyze the risks in the market and find out the problems in the development of foreign stock index futures,On the basis of continuous improvement and improvement of risk,to develop a reasonable regulatory system and the corresponding regulatory system to monitor the stock index futures market risk.In recent years,the financial market risk has aroused the attention of China's regulators,with the futures market is about to international,then the risk of stock index futures regulation is worthy of attention.China Securities Regulatory Commission Vice Chairman Xinghai Fang that the coordinated development of various regulatory agencies work together at the same time,as soon as possible to promote the futures industry internationalization,but the entire futures industry is still to control risk on a more important position,the futures exchange still need To fulfill its first-line regulatory duties.At the same time,he also said that the futures market is gradually improving the establishment of futures-related laws and regulations,even the industry has been looking forward to the "futures law" is also gradually advancing.Since 2017 with the release of stock index futures,the futures market is gradually stable development,the regulators are also coordinated to resist market risk,and gradually establish a more sound regulatory system.Stock index futures as part of the futures market,the risk of regulation is naturally based on the futures market regulation rules.But with the stock index futures market continues to matutre and development of China's futures market in the future there will certainly be for the market supervision or regulatory system.This paper combs a large number of literatures related to stock index futures at home and abroad,combined with the latest economic situation,the use of comparative analysis,case analysis,theoretical and empirical analysis of the combination of China's current high degree of attention to financial risk regulation of market conditions,Stock index futures development of the most mature US and British regulatory system comparison,analysis of China's current regulatory status and the need to improve the regulatory system.Then,based on the analysis of the source and factor of the stock index futures market,the IF 1703 of Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index futures is selected as the research sample from July 18,2016 to March 17,2017.Through the normal inspection and the stability test And then the heterodyne test,etc.to establish the best use of the GARCH model to analyze the sample data to obtain the variance equation and standard deviation of the model,and finally use the standard deviation to get the VAR value of each trading day and test the model rationality.After analyzing the risk,this paper analyzes the typical risk cases in the stock index futures market,and thinks that the risk supervision department should start from the forecast risk,use the GARCH-VAR to measure the risk reasonably and establish the real-time risk early warning system to the stock index futures Market real-time supervision,so that risk regulatory policy is no longer lagging behind.At the same time timely introduction of stock index futures market related laws and regulations to regulate market participants,improve the stock index futures market internal control mechanism;futures industry associations should be risk compliance education so that investors in strict accordance with the relevant laws and regulations and trading rules,the regulators And their respective positions to make our stock index futures market risk to be effectively controlled.