Study On The Risks Of China's Stock Index Futures

The stock index futures have already been the most important derive instrument on the world financial market. The essence functions of the stock index futures are hedging, discovering price and collocating resource. Stock index futures trading perfects the market mechanism by providing an effective instrument for avoiding risk, increasing floating of spot market and speeding up the development of capital market. Therefore, the voice of proposing launching stock index futures trade is higher and higher. The government have already been preparing for the launch for a long time. Currently with perfect of the supervisory system, the development of our stock market and the institutional investors, the basic conditions for launching the stock index futures have existed. The successful trial of the stock index-HU SHEN300 and the pushing of the new regulations of the futures market make the launch of the stock index futures imperative.At the time of pushing the stock index futures, on one hand, we should recognize the function of stock index futures correctly; on the other hand, we should identify the risks of stock index futures and their sources, so that we can control the risks efficiently.The risk sources of stock index futures are various, which result in the varieties of the risks of stock index futures. The stock index futures are traded with deposit, which magnifies the latent risks because of the leverage effect. Besides, the risk will transfer between the stock market and the stock index futures market for the two has an indiscerptible relationship. The common risks of finance derivations and stock index futures exist in our stock index futures market. And being an emerging market, China stock market has the special factors, which can bring about risks to China stock index futures including the low efficiency of the stock market. The paper is divided into three part: risk recognition, risk measurement and risk control according to the course of risk management. In the first part, the paper puts forward the study on qualitative analysis of the risks of stock index futures . On the basis of the stock index futures, this paper systematically indicates the common risks of the stock index futures, and further illustrate the risks which China stock index futures probably has. In the second part, the paper review the risk measurement method and illuminating VaR method specially, which is the most popular method in the risk measurement field. Moreover, it analyses the possible problems that will exist if we introduce VaR method to our coming stock index futures market and presents the relevant advisory comments and resolutions. Finally, from macroscopic, middle-scope and microscopic angles, concrete policies were brought forward to prevent the risk of the stock index futures.